Last night I put a sell-limit order on NVDA for $58 per share. The stock has been very well bought lately. Five winning sessions in a row, the daily chart is beginning to look like the sheer granite face of El Capitan. Thirty percent return in under two months. There are some excited wags on the message board claiming this company is earning a higher multiple. That itself may be a contrary indicator. I did take the sell -limit order off for the open. It's not going to open there anyway. Yesterday the stock closed near the daily high on huge volume, so I'm going to let the dog run a bit more.
A quick look at Bloomberg energy prices to see where the commodites are headed: http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/commodities/energyprices.html shows crude oil fetching over sixty-six dollars a gallon. Natural gas futures are higher also. The energy markets are still imbalanced; crude is well supplied, distillates are not, and NG futures have been very well sold. When Russia disrupted NG supplies to the Ukraine last winter, that was a clear reminder to me that energy equals political power. Were we not pouring so much money into the coffers of certain purveyors of sour crude. Valero buys mostly Mayan heavy sour from Mexico. Love that crack spread!
Took off the $21.01 sell -limit order on LIFC as well. That one may open higher than that. I don't need the money, and the stock seems to have a floor at twenty dollars. Going to let that mutt run into the session, and possibly into next week. My sell reasons are not to avoid loss, rather, can I put the money to better use. Wow! Dividend alert: ten cents per share from Newmont Mining Corp. That stock started on a little run a while back, when everything was down. The metals are still only about halfway back to break-even. Everything else is very encouraging.
Hey, Etrade, how about that margin request. Looks like it's going to be a no, which is alright. I'm sure there is a brokerage that will let me borrow the shares to sell short out of my cash account. That's all I want to do. And maybe write a few biotech covered calls.
buonos fortunatos !
10:33 pst... thinking about a new screen, the cost of gold vs. real estate vs. wheat over super cycles. the ultimate macro screen. today is shaping up as slightly higher energy, a little better in metals. Platinum approaching eleven hundred. Gold near six. I'm looking for a palladium play. The DJIA is nearing triple digit lower.
I think I'm sitting another day out. Not fully by choice, because I tried out my new margin account. Wouldn't let me short a certain 'engine' firm at $386 because my cash funds haven't been moved over yet. And, since LIFC is gapping today on volume, I'm not going to sell my shares just yet. I'll see where the stock is at the close.
The standard options contract is for 100 shares. I believe I will get there with one of the stocks currently on my top line by the end of this year. More than a hundred shares of Valero or Newfield, or Ryerson, or Corning. I'm closest with SFCC. That is a pretty large bet, only Ryerson is also that reachable. After today's close, LIFC might get in that company. Maybe STKL will have an options chain soon, now that it is on the 'DAQ.
Haven't sold the NVDA yet. Today's correction is a the result of a mathematical matter of time. Coming soon to your PC: MonkeyTrader. The image of Tarzan standing on the porch of his tree-house, high above the jungle floor. "Bye, Jane, see you after work," he motions to his beloved, then jumps onto a vine. He starts a downward trajectory, accelerating into the upward portion, then slows a bit near the apex, where he deftly grabs another vine.
Acceleration theory. For the model to work, one has to assume that Tarzan can get home after his shift at the frond factory, down on the jungle floor. The energy injected into the model is me; Tarzan is super strong, so he can use his arm muscles to snap the vine and create super-acceleration with each swing.
21:21 pst wow what a great day! Will be seen to have been or not...., but this moment, in this house, my beloved and our surroundings, and the sheer potential of tomorrow....
Sold short some Google today. I believe there is a classic head and shoulders formation on the chart. Maybe people are getting about full of groveling for their page rankings. Maybe it was the five billion dollar secondary offering today. If I were long, I would not be comfortable here. Newfield Exploration, on the other hand, recently needed a little money for CAPEX. They floated a 550 -million dollar debt run. This Newfield long shareholder is a little more comfortable with that.
What about bonds? Major Economics just knows that the price goes down when the yield goes up. Other than that, I've never invested in a bond. That diversification confuses Major Economics, who can be a bull-headed growth monger. The time to go long bonds might be after the fed stops raising rates. The time to set my snooze alarm for bonds would certainly be once the quarterly GDP starts contracting.
Right now the labor market is a bit tight. That's why I believe six percent is a real possiblity. A possiblity this bull market would have a hard time with. I would rather see the Fed pause at five percent, then watch the labor market for signs of wage inflation. I don't believe there will be that big a threat from wages because global competition is keeping them low. If inflation does flare up, we will get a good indication from commodities, and they can jack them up a point by surprise, for all I care. It's not the measured rate increases I really have a problem with. I would have liked to see some larger rate increases earlier on, followed by smaller rate increases at further and further intervals. And why the drop by the Fed all the way down to one percent. That created too much liquidity in the market. I hope that doesn't someday become the fly in the former chairman's legacy. peace patience and prosperity
Thursday, March 30, 2006
Tuesday, March 28, 2006
If Then Else
Someone's awake! Spent three trading hours putting my resume on telecom sites, even VOIT. For some reason, I checked into ISSX just now, and they have been down graded. Translation: big up move coming. A sell-limit order on some SFCC could pay for a relatively big position in internet security.... IF someone would pay me twenty-five dollars each for the SFCC, and IF someone else would be so kind as to let me have the ISSX for twenty-three.
Big Ben's First Day
Looks like a choppy day ahead, before another interest rate hike. I want to start selling, to take profits, and to try to balance the portfolio. Most of my cash is in energy and tech. Oil and oil services (RYI, HYDL), and metals, and tech. Put a limit sell order at $36 for Novatel, Inc., and watched it for awhile. After five minutes, I decided to only sell half my shares. Five minutes later, I cancelled the whole order. I don't feel that is a stock about to go down.
Rackable Systems is trading over fifty-two. I tell myself that it's alright, I made ten dollars a share, and still have a little left on the table, and that makes me feel better. United Health has fallen under fifty-four. That stock might trend down to 49 or so, at which point I would buy more.
Someone covered or went long for a few WPCS shares this morning and brought the ask all the way to $8.38. WPCS' P.R. machine blasted out word of a five million dollar contract. The ask only held for five minutes, and now the dog is at eight dollars. Looks like I sold at the floor price, which is okay, because I still have a few shares left. I felt at the time that the stock would be at or under the floor for awhile, possibly two quarters, but do love the outfit.
buenos fortunatos!
Rackable Systems is trading over fifty-two. I tell myself that it's alright, I made ten dollars a share, and still have a little left on the table, and that makes me feel better. United Health has fallen under fifty-four. That stock might trend down to 49 or so, at which point I would buy more.
Someone covered or went long for a few WPCS shares this morning and brought the ask all the way to $8.38. WPCS' P.R. machine blasted out word of a five million dollar contract. The ask only held for five minutes, and now the dog is at eight dollars. Looks like I sold at the floor price, which is okay, because I still have a few shares left. I felt at the time that the stock would be at or under the floor for awhile, possibly two quarters, but do love the outfit.
buenos fortunatos!
Monday, March 27, 2006
Pixar Perfect
I want to understand how TradingMarkets.com comes up with their power ratings. They say that, according to PowerRatings.net, Pixar, Inc (PIXR) has a power rating of 8. Since I put a buy-limit order for some PIXR today, that interests me a little.
"Here are 7 of the top PowerRatings stocks from PowerRatings.net for the week of March 24.
Stocks are rated 1 through 10, with 10 being the highest. Stocks PowerRated 10 have on average outperformed the S&P 500 by a 16.9-1 margin over a one-week period from 1995-2005. Stocks PowerRated 1 and 2 have on average lost money in simulated trading over the next week." They have a daily chart for each stock in the article. Some of the stocks look pretty beaten up .... http://biz.yahoo.com/tm/060324/14094.html?.v=4
Three of the stocks, Sonus (SONS), Symbol Tech (SBL), and Western Digital (WDC), have experienced corrections, and are trading well under their 20-day simple moving average. PIXR and Nuance Communications ( NUAN) have pulled slightly back, to within range of their 20-day. JDS Uniphase (JDSU) is consolidating around four dollars and is very well bought. Ciena (CIEN) is rated a nine, and is in a nice trading range, for someone already long. It may be a little well bought for me. The question is, how would a highly rated stock do for the week, if the ratings weren't published.
I just want the Pixar shares for the certificates. There was a story two weeks ago about the high demand for their paper certificates, whimisically adorned with Woody or other characters. Not too anxious to have the order filled today; just a soon see it go in next week, so the trade counts in the new quarter.
I wonder if I have any stocks that are PowerRated a one? United Health may close down below fifty-five dollars. I seem to have a lot of stocks in that fifty-dollar range. Oh, snap! Valero just went into the green zone. With gas selling for three dollars a gallon, there is no reason their pps is under sixty. Newfield was weaker this morning, reflecting the selloff in NG futures. Nice to see them bounce back and keep the floor above forty dollars. Ryerson (RYI) crossed the twenty-day line, and is now over twenty-five. Not much volume though. Let's hope the sellers didn't notice. All in all, great start for a Monday.
"Here are 7 of the top PowerRatings stocks from PowerRatings.net for the week of March 24.
Stocks are rated 1 through 10, with 10 being the highest. Stocks PowerRated 10 have on average outperformed the S&P 500 by a 16.9-1 margin over a one-week period from 1995-2005. Stocks PowerRated 1 and 2 have on average lost money in simulated trading over the next week." They have a daily chart for each stock in the article. Some of the stocks look pretty beaten up .... http://biz.yahoo.com/tm/060324/14094.html?.v=4
Three of the stocks, Sonus (SONS), Symbol Tech (SBL), and Western Digital (WDC), have experienced corrections, and are trading well under their 20-day simple moving average. PIXR and Nuance Communications ( NUAN) have pulled slightly back, to within range of their 20-day. JDS Uniphase (JDSU) is consolidating around four dollars and is very well bought. Ciena (CIEN) is rated a nine, and is in a nice trading range, for someone already long. It may be a little well bought for me. The question is, how would a highly rated stock do for the week, if the ratings weren't published.
I just want the Pixar shares for the certificates. There was a story two weeks ago about the high demand for their paper certificates, whimisically adorned with Woody or other characters. Not too anxious to have the order filled today; just a soon see it go in next week, so the trade counts in the new quarter.
I wonder if I have any stocks that are PowerRated a one? United Health may close down below fifty-five dollars. I seem to have a lot of stocks in that fifty-dollar range. Oh, snap! Valero just went into the green zone. With gas selling for three dollars a gallon, there is no reason their pps is under sixty. Newfield was weaker this morning, reflecting the selloff in NG futures. Nice to see them bounce back and keep the floor above forty dollars. Ryerson (RYI) crossed the twenty-day line, and is now over twenty-five. Not much volume though. Let's hope the sellers didn't notice. All in all, great start for a Monday.
Sunday, March 26, 2006
One Source Connections
The resume is going out on the wire tonight. Might as well broadcast the text in this wonderful media, this ultra-low frequency rivulet.....
Objective: Seeking challenging opportunities in the communications industry,
Education: Advanced Career Training, San Diego, Telecommunications Technology, 10/1999-03/2000, 3M Certified Fiber Optic Technician, Certified Siecor SC UniCam(tm) Connector, Certified Ericsson EC-4 Fusion Splicer, Hubbell Premise Wiring, CompTIA A+ , Microsoft Certified Professional - Level Technical Support,
University of California, San Diego, B.A., Major Economics, minor English Literature
Technical Skills: Fiber Optic Project Management, Fiber Optic lateral cable construction management, Connectorization, splicing, and termination of fiber optic cable, Cable and link testing using OTDR, optical power meter, Data Center rack and cabinet build-outs using AC and DC circuits, Communications circuit testing: Telco, Gigabit Ethernet, ISDN, SONET, Installation of intra-building cabling systems conforming to code, Modular termination and testing of cable plant, Wireless (WiFi, WiMAX), cellular and satellite plant to fiber backbone, Troubleshooting and diagnostic repair of circuits and equipment, Router configuration and modifications using Cisco IOS, Extremeware, MCP -proficient using Windows operating system,
Work Experience: April 2000 to present: Southern California Field Technician, LA and San Diego Operator for Pioneering Gig E provider, Solely responsible for market's 24 X 7 dispatch services, Investigate possible fiber breaks, power outs, connectivity issues, Field test new circuits from MPOE to customer premise, Conduct head-to-head testing using remote testing assistance, Verify ports from demarc through customer premise equipment, Implemented fiber construction projects into landmark buildings: Incl. 401 B Street, 501 W. Broadway, 402 W. Broadway, and more, Built-out data centers incl. Level (3), One Wilshire, Equinix etc,
1996 to 1999: Account Manager, Responsible for international logistics, packaging and freight, Trained new hires and implemented cost-saving measures,
1989 to 1998: Restaurant Manager, Hired and trained new employees, Maintained inventory control systems, Maintained restaurant equipment and facilities,
1986 to 1989: Sales and Major Account Representative, Initiated new accounts within large organizations and vertical markets, Account base included corporate, government and military installations.
Think twenty years is going back far enough. I could still be prospering at the 1986 job, he is that sharp. Going back twenty-five years, well that is getting into areas only the Fates delve into, those super-cycles. Lurching off the curb into the street on a quiet urban morning. Or was that destiny....?
Objective: Seeking challenging opportunities in the communications industry,
Education: Advanced Career Training, San Diego, Telecommunications Technology, 10/1999-03/2000, 3M Certified Fiber Optic Technician, Certified Siecor SC UniCam(tm) Connector, Certified Ericsson EC-4 Fusion Splicer, Hubbell Premise Wiring, CompTIA A+ , Microsoft Certified Professional - Level Technical Support,
University of California, San Diego, B.A., Major Economics, minor English Literature
Technical Skills: Fiber Optic Project Management, Fiber Optic lateral cable construction management, Connectorization, splicing, and termination of fiber optic cable, Cable and link testing using OTDR, optical power meter, Data Center rack and cabinet build-outs using AC and DC circuits, Communications circuit testing: Telco, Gigabit Ethernet, ISDN, SONET, Installation of intra-building cabling systems conforming to code, Modular termination and testing of cable plant, Wireless (WiFi, WiMAX), cellular and satellite plant to fiber backbone, Troubleshooting and diagnostic repair of circuits and equipment, Router configuration and modifications using Cisco IOS, Extremeware, MCP -proficient using Windows operating system,
Work Experience: April 2000 to present: Southern California Field Technician, LA and San Diego Operator for Pioneering Gig E provider, Solely responsible for market's 24 X 7 dispatch services, Investigate possible fiber breaks, power outs, connectivity issues, Field test new circuits from MPOE to customer premise, Conduct head-to-head testing using remote testing assistance, Verify ports from demarc through customer premise equipment, Implemented fiber construction projects into landmark buildings: Incl. 401 B Street, 501 W. Broadway, 402 W. Broadway, and more, Built-out data centers incl. Level (3), One Wilshire, Equinix etc,
1996 to 1999: Account Manager, Responsible for international logistics, packaging and freight, Trained new hires and implemented cost-saving measures,
1989 to 1998: Restaurant Manager, Hired and trained new employees, Maintained inventory control systems, Maintained restaurant equipment and facilities,
1986 to 1989: Sales and Major Account Representative, Initiated new accounts within large organizations and vertical markets, Account base included corporate, government and military installations.
Think twenty years is going back far enough. I could still be prospering at the 1986 job, he is that sharp. Going back twenty-five years, well that is getting into areas only the Fates delve into, those super-cycles. Lurching off the curb into the street on a quiet urban morning. Or was that destiny....?
Friday, March 24, 2006
Smoke Signals
Taking some off the table this week. United Health Group, Inc. (UNH) got skimmed off on Monday. What few $62 shares I still have are a dollar lower than where I got out. The general idea is to reduce exposure to shares that are probably going lower. The chart on UNH shows a stock that has completely broken down. The 20 day average was declining, and the pps has been unable to touch it.
WPCS is going to be in the doghouse for awhile longer than UNH. I shed most of my shares for eight bucks, wiping out my earlier gain. Lesson learned, to be a bit more aggressive when taking profits. Also, when they came down and touched the 200 day average, that should have alerted me to put in a sell limit order on the subsequent conference-call bounce. I guess I thought that bounce would get me closer to ten bucks. Oink. Support for this stock is somewhere above six dollars.
RACK shares were hard to part with, but the easiest choice given the indicators. This stock has been very well bought. The volume is still good, but it has begun tapering off. No doubt the insider selling made me a bit jumpy.
Still trying to figure out LifeCell (LIFC). The way I look at it, reminds me of this look I get from my dad every now and then. To me, this neat little channel it has formed is a consolidation and accumulation phase. There is a breakout in this stock. It barely managed to touch the 20-day once all week, but, that sma did cross the 100-day last month. The pps may still threaten to become a teen again, but I don't think it crosses. The next move in this stock is to a slightly higher channel, with resistance at twenty-three something.
Speaking of resistance, I just started wondering about the resistance level for Novatel, Inc. (NGPS). The close yesterday at thirty-five was huge, psychologically. Today's close could confirm a breakout. There was significant pre-market interest this morning. The volume will be smaller than yesterday, but a close in the green is possible. The pps briefly crossed $36, a level not seen in eight months. If this stock can create a new channel with support around here, then all-time highs in the forties are possible within a year or so. Ooo! Newfield just crossed forty-one. Getting tingly.
Almost time to play 'Battlefield 1942.' The 2002 Game of the Year has got me hooked. I think it is because I see my father and his generation as superheroes, that I want to relive their battles and their glory. Last night I fought the battle of Wake Island again, as invincible superboy 'chillblaine.' I spawned near a half-track and drove it to a hill overlooking the communications bunker. From there, I could put MG fire on enemy aircraft, landing craft, or assault troops.
After some ace in a Zero blew me up, I respawned near a coastal artillery piece. An enemy ship is spotted. I lobbed a few shells toward the wheel-house. Once he opened fire with his naval guns, my bunker and I were destroyed.
The next time I spawned, I ran toward the hangar, and hopped in a fighter plane. Some guy jumped in also to become my tail-gunner and off we went looking for targets. Poor guy, should have told him that I only learned to fly yesterday, and I can't hit anything yet except a ship.
After we exploded, I chose to spawn aboard ship. I went into the Higgins boat and piloted it next to a submarine. Then I dropped the ramp of the Higgins and climbed aboard the sub. I was tooling around the battle zone at the helm of my personal sub! I submerged to periscope depth and patrolled the waters, looking for enemy shipping. On my first command, I sank an Imperial Navy carrier. Then one of it's fighters spotted me and sent me to Davy Jones' Locker. Run silent, run deep.
WPCS is going to be in the doghouse for awhile longer than UNH. I shed most of my shares for eight bucks, wiping out my earlier gain. Lesson learned, to be a bit more aggressive when taking profits. Also, when they came down and touched the 200 day average, that should have alerted me to put in a sell limit order on the subsequent conference-call bounce. I guess I thought that bounce would get me closer to ten bucks. Oink. Support for this stock is somewhere above six dollars.
RACK shares were hard to part with, but the easiest choice given the indicators. This stock has been very well bought. The volume is still good, but it has begun tapering off. No doubt the insider selling made me a bit jumpy.
Still trying to figure out LifeCell (LIFC). The way I look at it, reminds me of this look I get from my dad every now and then. To me, this neat little channel it has formed is a consolidation and accumulation phase. There is a breakout in this stock. It barely managed to touch the 20-day once all week, but, that sma did cross the 100-day last month. The pps may still threaten to become a teen again, but I don't think it crosses. The next move in this stock is to a slightly higher channel, with resistance at twenty-three something.
Speaking of resistance, I just started wondering about the resistance level for Novatel, Inc. (NGPS). The close yesterday at thirty-five was huge, psychologically. Today's close could confirm a breakout. There was significant pre-market interest this morning. The volume will be smaller than yesterday, but a close in the green is possible. The pps briefly crossed $36, a level not seen in eight months. If this stock can create a new channel with support around here, then all-time highs in the forties are possible within a year or so. Ooo! Newfield just crossed forty-one. Getting tingly.
Almost time to play 'Battlefield 1942.' The 2002 Game of the Year has got me hooked. I think it is because I see my father and his generation as superheroes, that I want to relive their battles and their glory. Last night I fought the battle of Wake Island again, as invincible superboy 'chillblaine.' I spawned near a half-track and drove it to a hill overlooking the communications bunker. From there, I could put MG fire on enemy aircraft, landing craft, or assault troops.
After some ace in a Zero blew me up, I respawned near a coastal artillery piece. An enemy ship is spotted. I lobbed a few shells toward the wheel-house. Once he opened fire with his naval guns, my bunker and I were destroyed.
The next time I spawned, I ran toward the hangar, and hopped in a fighter plane. Some guy jumped in also to become my tail-gunner and off we went looking for targets. Poor guy, should have told him that I only learned to fly yesterday, and I can't hit anything yet except a ship.
After we exploded, I chose to spawn aboard ship. I went into the Higgins boat and piloted it next to a submarine. Then I dropped the ramp of the Higgins and climbed aboard the sub. I was tooling around the battle zone at the helm of my personal sub! I submerged to periscope depth and patrolled the waters, looking for enemy shipping. On my first command, I sank an Imperial Navy carrier. Then one of it's fighters spotted me and sent me to Davy Jones' Locker. Run silent, run deep.
Thursday, March 23, 2006
Risk Assessment
Valero assumes the most risk in the portfolio, with more than ten percent of it's total value. That is a fair burden for a stock that is about to challenge fifty-nine dollars. The last time I swung out of VLO was at $63; think that or better is in this mini-run. The refiners are in between winter and summer blends, at least out here. Lots of vloatility!
Newfield Exploration (NFX) is the second-riskiest position with another ten percent. Today is a major vindication, with their shale announcement. They are drilling horizontally with success in a major field, to take advantage of the natural cracks and fissures in the shale. Very strong volume with shorts covering since pre-market; possibly a close above forty. Only have to get to $44 -something to start breaking even on the shares. Faithful the stock tests sixty this summer.
Storied SFBC Int'l (SFCC) has come to assume another eight percent of the total. I could have sold already for a quick thirty percent return. It is just so pleasurable to watch more shorts cover each day. I remember being on the other side of this squeeze, not four months ago. Now, I don't look at the intra-day chart anymore, just the close. If there is still a huge short interest out there, they would have so many days to cover, which I should check into. There still might be a long entry point under twenty five. Once that figure is taken out, look out thirty.
Novatel, Inc. (NGPS) is my next riskiest position. The shares have increased in value by 15% in exactly three months. I haven't taken any money out yet, because the rise has been so orderly. The 20-day sma is rising, and the pps spends most of the time right above it, pulling it up. Earnings are already baked into the stock price, and I see it above $35 in a month or so.
Corning, Inc. (GLW) is more than a stock to me. It is also a connection to my sweetheart's home state. Two months into ownership with no complaints. Nice to have the highest quality glass in the world. This is also an investment in clean diesel for me.
Ryerson, Inc. (RYI) is still in a bad way. The 20 day sma has reached down to touch the 100, and the pps is under them both, creating it's own channel. This one will need to get above $26 and stay there to start recovering.
peace patience and prosperity
Newfield Exploration (NFX) is the second-riskiest position with another ten percent. Today is a major vindication, with their shale announcement. They are drilling horizontally with success in a major field, to take advantage of the natural cracks and fissures in the shale. Very strong volume with shorts covering since pre-market; possibly a close above forty. Only have to get to $44 -something to start breaking even on the shares. Faithful the stock tests sixty this summer.
Storied SFBC Int'l (SFCC) has come to assume another eight percent of the total. I could have sold already for a quick thirty percent return. It is just so pleasurable to watch more shorts cover each day. I remember being on the other side of this squeeze, not four months ago. Now, I don't look at the intra-day chart anymore, just the close. If there is still a huge short interest out there, they would have so many days to cover, which I should check into. There still might be a long entry point under twenty five. Once that figure is taken out, look out thirty.
Novatel, Inc. (NGPS) is my next riskiest position. The shares have increased in value by 15% in exactly three months. I haven't taken any money out yet, because the rise has been so orderly. The 20-day sma is rising, and the pps spends most of the time right above it, pulling it up. Earnings are already baked into the stock price, and I see it above $35 in a month or so.
Corning, Inc. (GLW) is more than a stock to me. It is also a connection to my sweetheart's home state. Two months into ownership with no complaints. Nice to have the highest quality glass in the world. This is also an investment in clean diesel for me.
Ryerson, Inc. (RYI) is still in a bad way. The 20 day sma has reached down to touch the 100, and the pps is under them both, creating it's own channel. This one will need to get above $26 and stay there to start recovering.
peace patience and prosperity
Tuesday, March 21, 2006
Pre Cognition
I'm very close to finishing my unified, rational behavioral market theory. The bits and pieces are starting to add up to segments. One of the market's greatest fears, is not having timely, correct information. When information is released or not released, this fear may manifest into predictable trading patterns, concerning volatility, which allow short term swing trades in both directions.
There is always the drive to understand why something is happening. Why is the share price of Newfield Exploration (NFX) still falling? Why is their pps going down while peers (CHK, XEC) are flat or rising? The retail investor relies on information that he knows is less than the whole story. The big shots are the ones playing with the inside information, he reasons.
The motivated retail investor does a little research, and sees increased put buying on NFX. Aha! Only the market makers would have the cojones to try that, on a stock already about three standard deviations below the 200 -day moving average. They Must Know Something, he reasons. Maybe a few more weak hands sell. This is a company that reported a net loss six months ago ( due to futures hedging ) and kept going up.
Either that or it's just program trading, hey, MyDingleTrader says '... short energy during shoulder season ...' Time will tell how cheap these shares are. Today was a disaster. Third straight losing day on large volume. Information for the masses is hard to come by. I think I was the last poster on their Yahoo! message board, about a week ago.
Things are not too pleasant over at WPCS International (WPCS), either. Their message board reflects the drama of a stock price that just completed a death's cross. They will finally have a conference call tomorrow, after the closing bell. Hopefully there will be an explanation about what to expect out of the top line, which will have gone down now, three quarters in a row.
Put a sell limit order in for NVDA today at $51.08, which was not filled. Found out after the nap, er, closing bell, that Windows Vista is delayed, which could knock a buck off NVDA tomorrow. There was an analyst upgrade today, which means, 'we only need a few more suckers before we can start selling...' Er, I mean, the stock may be nearing a top, but with an up day on huge volume, I don't feel too bad. Same with RACK. I actually put a sell-limit order in yesterday for $46 per share, then took it off ten minutes later. The indicator that convinced me to stay a while longer is the ever-increasing volume on these up days. Are institutions buying...?
How fitting that SunOpta, Inc., (STKL) ring the bell to open the NasDaq on the vernal equinox. How very sorry I feel, to have parted with so many shares. I still have a few shares there, though. I consider them so highly, that I ordered some of their paper certificates. I have always wanted to hold my own stock certificate. I wonder what the design will look like, whether it will have a giant gold seal on it. I wonder if they will change their symbol and make my certificates a collector's item. They say that the will keep the symbol STKL, which represents their founding Stake Technologies steam explosion process. They don't want to confuse investors with a new symbol. Somebody must have asked them to change it. Maybe next time they'll ask real nice.
Still trying to find the right words to describe my feelings of anger and disgust with my former manager. The same one who always needs invoices and bids emailed to him twice, because he can't find them. The same one who sends me out to verify circuits that haven't been dropped off yet. Called me yesterday to say that the company is cutting off my contract in ten days. A little warning would have been nice. Yipes that sucks!
I felt horrible yesterday, for a while. Then I watched, "The Color of War," on the History Channel. The boys and men who fought and died in those tanks, always make a deep impression on me. The Sherman tank had the nickname 'Ronson,' after the cigarette lighter that "lights first time, every time." Those boys had to swallow a lot of fear, and yet they went into battle, time and again, buttoned into a thin metal canister full of fuel and high explosives.
There is always the drive to understand why something is happening. Why is the share price of Newfield Exploration (NFX) still falling? Why is their pps going down while peers (CHK, XEC) are flat or rising? The retail investor relies on information that he knows is less than the whole story. The big shots are the ones playing with the inside information, he reasons.
The motivated retail investor does a little research, and sees increased put buying on NFX. Aha! Only the market makers would have the cojones to try that, on a stock already about three standard deviations below the 200 -day moving average. They Must Know Something, he reasons. Maybe a few more weak hands sell. This is a company that reported a net loss six months ago ( due to futures hedging ) and kept going up.
Either that or it's just program trading, hey, MyDingleTrader says '... short energy during shoulder season ...' Time will tell how cheap these shares are. Today was a disaster. Third straight losing day on large volume. Information for the masses is hard to come by. I think I was the last poster on their Yahoo! message board, about a week ago.
Things are not too pleasant over at WPCS International (WPCS), either. Their message board reflects the drama of a stock price that just completed a death's cross. They will finally have a conference call tomorrow, after the closing bell. Hopefully there will be an explanation about what to expect out of the top line, which will have gone down now, three quarters in a row.
Put a sell limit order in for NVDA today at $51.08, which was not filled. Found out after the nap, er, closing bell, that Windows Vista is delayed, which could knock a buck off NVDA tomorrow. There was an analyst upgrade today, which means, 'we only need a few more suckers before we can start selling...' Er, I mean, the stock may be nearing a top, but with an up day on huge volume, I don't feel too bad. Same with RACK. I actually put a sell-limit order in yesterday for $46 per share, then took it off ten minutes later. The indicator that convinced me to stay a while longer is the ever-increasing volume on these up days. Are institutions buying...?
How fitting that SunOpta, Inc., (STKL) ring the bell to open the NasDaq on the vernal equinox. How very sorry I feel, to have parted with so many shares. I still have a few shares there, though. I consider them so highly, that I ordered some of their paper certificates. I have always wanted to hold my own stock certificate. I wonder what the design will look like, whether it will have a giant gold seal on it. I wonder if they will change their symbol and make my certificates a collector's item. They say that the will keep the symbol STKL, which represents their founding Stake Technologies steam explosion process. They don't want to confuse investors with a new symbol. Somebody must have asked them to change it. Maybe next time they'll ask real nice.
Still trying to find the right words to describe my feelings of anger and disgust with my former manager. The same one who always needs invoices and bids emailed to him twice, because he can't find them. The same one who sends me out to verify circuits that haven't been dropped off yet. Called me yesterday to say that the company is cutting off my contract in ten days. A little warning would have been nice. Yipes that sucks!
I felt horrible yesterday, for a while. Then I watched, "The Color of War," on the History Channel. The boys and men who fought and died in those tanks, always make a deep impression on me. The Sherman tank had the nickname 'Ronson,' after the cigarette lighter that "lights first time, every time." Those boys had to swallow a lot of fear, and yet they went into battle, time and again, buttoned into a thin metal canister full of fuel and high explosives.
Monday, March 20, 2006
Post Time
Up for a little pre-market watching. Rackable Systems Inc., (RACK) has a few leading indicators moving sideways. There were four different insiders selling last week, more than three million shares. The shares didn't come out of the float; there was an over-allottment exercise last week. I imagine that there are around thirty million shares outstanding, as of that exercise. It's anyone's guess what the float is; with an IPO like this probably very close to the outs.
That means that more than ten percent of the shares got dumped onto the market. The stock rose over the course of the week, but on Thursday and Friday the volume was considerably off. Somehow the market was able to absorb the extra shares, but the stock looks like it is out of gas. Rackable has a very short leash now, even though I don't really like selling on Mondays.
There is positive action in ARTG and VICL this morning. VICL released positive results of a Sanofi-Aventis angiogenises trial using their DNA method. Haven't really looked at what's driving ARTG. Don't usually need to; it's trading on momentum, at least until four bucks short term.
Newfield Exploration, Inc. (NFX), got noticed by TradingMarkets.com on Friday, for some heavy put buying relative to calls. I don't see any news about the company to report, but then again, I wasn't the one selling all last month.
Buon Fortunados...
That means that more than ten percent of the shares got dumped onto the market. The stock rose over the course of the week, but on Thursday and Friday the volume was considerably off. Somehow the market was able to absorb the extra shares, but the stock looks like it is out of gas. Rackable has a very short leash now, even though I don't really like selling on Mondays.
There is positive action in ARTG and VICL this morning. VICL released positive results of a Sanofi-Aventis angiogenises trial using their DNA method. Haven't really looked at what's driving ARTG. Don't usually need to; it's trading on momentum, at least until four bucks short term.
Newfield Exploration, Inc. (NFX), got noticed by TradingMarkets.com on Friday, for some heavy put buying relative to calls. I don't see any news about the company to report, but then again, I wasn't the one selling all last month.
Buon Fortunados...
Sunday, March 19, 2006
insight or madness
Sometimes I get a stock symbol bouncing around in my crag. I can't tell whether it is a catchy ticker or my self telling me, that "it's the one..." One such company was Knology, Inc. (KNOL). The inner dialogue was tuned in to that stock in December, after the gap up. It made my inside -buy screen and kept moving up. I was making other decisions at the time, using cash for other opportunities. At the time, an investment in Time Warner Telecom (TWTC) would have taken me on a similarly good run. After consolidating, KNOL has gapped up twice recently, and is very well bought.
Ryerson, Inc., (RYI) announced they would have to restate earnings going back to 2003, with a cumulative reduction of earnings of $600,000. Yawn. We'll see how this affects the stock, since they had the courtefy of announcing after hours Friday. The stock is poised for a reversal. The pps is riding a rising 100 day average. No sense selling at this point, rather, waiting and buying below the 200-day line (currently under twenty-two dollars).
That's about all the luminousity for now. I was toying with the idea of changing my online character's name to Carl Hanratty, from the movie, "Catch Me if You Can." Then again, there's Frank Abegnale, Jr. I may have been killed by that guy once. I changed my game character's name to 'lowest score possible.' Whenever another player 'kills' my character, his screen will scroll, "you killed 'lowest score possible.'" Hopefully take some of the ego out of being the oldest player with the slowest hand-eye coordination.
Ryerson, Inc., (RYI) announced they would have to restate earnings going back to 2003, with a cumulative reduction of earnings of $600,000. Yawn. We'll see how this affects the stock, since they had the courtefy of announcing after hours Friday. The stock is poised for a reversal. The pps is riding a rising 100 day average. No sense selling at this point, rather, waiting and buying below the 200-day line (currently under twenty-two dollars).
That's about all the luminousity for now. I was toying with the idea of changing my online character's name to Carl Hanratty, from the movie, "Catch Me if You Can." Then again, there's Frank Abegnale, Jr. I may have been killed by that guy once. I changed my game character's name to 'lowest score possible.' Whenever another player 'kills' my character, his screen will scroll, "you killed 'lowest score possible.'" Hopefully take some of the ego out of being the oldest player with the slowest hand-eye coordination.
Saturday, March 18, 2006
deductions, academic
I was about full of 'Medal of Honor: Allied Assault,' finding the multiplayer arena somewhat void after a difficult and incomplete install. So all last night, I attempted a full install of the Battlefield 1942 series, including the Road to Rome. Before I could play, GameSpy prompted me to upgrade to 1.6.19, which was a big upgrade (254mg). GameSpy then prompted me to download the v1.6 - v1.61b patch.
Every time I tried to load BF 1942 from GameSpy, I kept getting an error that said, 'map not found.' I can see the maps in the BF 1942 directory. I couldn't rule out the patch as the source of the problem, because I ran BF 1942 multiplayer before on this same client (I remember because I got kicked from the first server I connected to, and all I was doing was trying to drive a truck). I can utilize the single-player version.
The error occured while trying to launch from the GameSpy console, which is also where 'Medal of Honor: Allied Assault," always aborted. The error messages were similar, in that GameSpy couldn't find an executable or map or path. Whenever I picked a MOHAA server to connect to, GameSpy responded that there was an error, and to "make sure the game is properly installed and that the path is correct." I thought that since I am pathed to M:\games instead of to C:\Program Files, GameSpy got all weirded-out.
So the culprit has to be GameSpy Arcade, which can then be isolated. I remembered there were four internet settings in BF 1942: 56k, ISDN, ADSL, and T1. I changed the setting from ISDN to ADSL, even though I run cable. That fixed the GameSpy problem, and the multiplayer problem in general. As a final test, I clicked on a server from the GameSpy console and promptly got greased somewhere in Tobruk. Awesome! I sowed a mustard seed of faith by bidding on a copy of the 'Secret Weapons' expansion pack on Ebay.
With BF 1942 installed properly, I looked back at the MOHAA settings, to see if I was missing anything that obvious. My internet settings were properly set for cable. I changed my settings to ISDN for grins and giggles, then went back to 'join game.' I was prompted to choose LAN game or Internet game. When I chose Internet game, I finally noticed that there are actually THREE choices: Enter I.P. Address, Launch GameSpy, and Browse Internet Servers.
The most glaringly obvious choice, Browse Internet Servers, is lettered inside a rectangular wood-grain style box, as are the other two. And, it's the on top of the other two choices. I was thrown off because under the other two choices is a rectangular green box, explaining the option. I never read the actual words, Browse Internet Servers, thinking it was a header box for the other two choices. The ones with the bright green explanations.
hehehe.
Every time I tried to load BF 1942 from GameSpy, I kept getting an error that said, 'map not found.' I can see the maps in the BF 1942 directory. I couldn't rule out the patch as the source of the problem, because I ran BF 1942 multiplayer before on this same client (I remember because I got kicked from the first server I connected to, and all I was doing was trying to drive a truck). I can utilize the single-player version.
The error occured while trying to launch from the GameSpy console, which is also where 'Medal of Honor: Allied Assault," always aborted. The error messages were similar, in that GameSpy couldn't find an executable or map or path. Whenever I picked a MOHAA server to connect to, GameSpy responded that there was an error, and to "make sure the game is properly installed and that the path is correct." I thought that since I am pathed to M:\games instead of to C:\Program Files, GameSpy got all weirded-out.
So the culprit has to be GameSpy Arcade, which can then be isolated. I remembered there were four internet settings in BF 1942: 56k, ISDN, ADSL, and T1. I changed the setting from ISDN to ADSL, even though I run cable. That fixed the GameSpy problem, and the multiplayer problem in general. As a final test, I clicked on a server from the GameSpy console and promptly got greased somewhere in Tobruk. Awesome! I sowed a mustard seed of faith by bidding on a copy of the 'Secret Weapons' expansion pack on Ebay.
With BF 1942 installed properly, I looked back at the MOHAA settings, to see if I was missing anything that obvious. My internet settings were properly set for cable. I changed my settings to ISDN for grins and giggles, then went back to 'join game.' I was prompted to choose LAN game or Internet game. When I chose Internet game, I finally noticed that there are actually THREE choices: Enter I.P. Address, Launch GameSpy, and Browse Internet Servers.
The most glaringly obvious choice, Browse Internet Servers, is lettered inside a rectangular wood-grain style box, as are the other two. And, it's the on top of the other two choices. I was thrown off because under the other two choices is a rectangular green box, explaining the option. I never read the actual words, Browse Internet Servers, thinking it was a header box for the other two choices. The ones with the bright green explanations.
hehehe.
Friday, March 17, 2006
march expirations
The daily line is about to cross into the green. That would be five sessions in a row. The shorts seemed to resume covering at SFBC, Int'l. The stock has gone up every day this week, albiet on lower volume until today. The strength there is offset by weakness at WPCS. They are down around eight-fifty because they asked for an extension to file. They did say that before a special charge, they made $0.16 last quarter, and that their operations and cash flow are not affected. As soon as I can, I will be loading up more shares, since the risk is already priced into the stock.
There is a little strength in the tech side of the house, which is offset by a little weakness in energy. Hopefully NFX will come back today like it has all week. Selling early in the session, followed by buying all afternoon. I love expiration Friday!
Almost time for my first round of "Call of Duty" for the day. I felt a bit of frustration lately, trying to get online to play "Medal of Honor, Allied Assault." The only ways to play online are with a manual I.P. address of a server, or connecting through GameSpy. First off, the name isn't exactly a warm fuzzy going on my hard drive. And my anti-virus program detected it try to install two spyware programs, alaunch.cab, and Adware_Generic.CZ. Even so, I went ahead with the install.
I wrote to EA games requesting support on the issue. Why do I have to exit the program to go multiplayer. Why can't it be like MOH: Pacific Assault, where servers can be found within the game. I love EA's response: uninstall the progam. That must be the only thing on their customer service boilerplate, it's so obvious. It did lead me to the proper resolution, that was, to install the multiplayer patch.
After installing the patch, I fiddled with GameSpy for a bit, and learned how to use it. It has a central interface for all my multiplayer games. Exactly what I don't need. When I click the 'Medal of Honor' icon, it brings up a menu with games in progress all over the place: the Eastern Front, the Siegfried Line, deathmatch, and more. GameSpy keeps track of all the players, in a chat-like interface. All of the players playing all of the games on all of the servers came out to 59 total people, early this morning. The fact that GameSpy still won't actually launch the multiplayer because of yet another issue, is hence irrelevent. What a colossal waste of time.
Don't think a company like EA really cares, having left the 'Medal of Honor' franchise to wither on the vine. Evidently they have ceded the WWII shooter franchise to the 'Call of Duty' developers, who are former EA anyway. Every time EA is about to release another blockbuster video game, I take a look at the stock. Every time I come away feeling that the equity is a little overvalued; the trailing P/E is over sixty, and the price/sales is almost six. Quite a premium for a stock that isn't growing that fast anymore. Maybe I'll dig a little into Midway Games, (MWY) and try to figure out if they are going to re-join the living.
buon fortunados
There is a little strength in the tech side of the house, which is offset by a little weakness in energy. Hopefully NFX will come back today like it has all week. Selling early in the session, followed by buying all afternoon. I love expiration Friday!
Almost time for my first round of "Call of Duty" for the day. I felt a bit of frustration lately, trying to get online to play "Medal of Honor, Allied Assault." The only ways to play online are with a manual I.P. address of a server, or connecting through GameSpy. First off, the name isn't exactly a warm fuzzy going on my hard drive. And my anti-virus program detected it try to install two spyware programs, alaunch.cab, and Adware_Generic.CZ. Even so, I went ahead with the install.
I wrote to EA games requesting support on the issue. Why do I have to exit the program to go multiplayer. Why can't it be like MOH: Pacific Assault, where servers can be found within the game. I love EA's response: uninstall the progam. That must be the only thing on their customer service boilerplate, it's so obvious. It did lead me to the proper resolution, that was, to install the multiplayer patch.
After installing the patch, I fiddled with GameSpy for a bit, and learned how to use it. It has a central interface for all my multiplayer games. Exactly what I don't need. When I click the 'Medal of Honor' icon, it brings up a menu with games in progress all over the place: the Eastern Front, the Siegfried Line, deathmatch, and more. GameSpy keeps track of all the players, in a chat-like interface. All of the players playing all of the games on all of the servers came out to 59 total people, early this morning. The fact that GameSpy still won't actually launch the multiplayer because of yet another issue, is hence irrelevent. What a colossal waste of time.
Don't think a company like EA really cares, having left the 'Medal of Honor' franchise to wither on the vine. Evidently they have ceded the WWII shooter franchise to the 'Call of Duty' developers, who are former EA anyway. Every time EA is about to release another blockbuster video game, I take a look at the stock. Every time I come away feeling that the equity is a little overvalued; the trailing P/E is over sixty, and the price/sales is almost six. Quite a premium for a stock that isn't growing that fast anymore. Maybe I'll dig a little into Midway Games, (MWY) and try to figure out if they are going to re-join the living.
buon fortunados
Wednesday, March 15, 2006
SEC Form 4 noticeables
....... wandering the wasteland of companies that hit the inside-buy screen. Some real pound puppies there. Lost one of my other precious Etrade screens, a list of companies that have made the top ten winners list on the Nasdaq or NYSE. The idea behind the screen was to follow the gap for awhile and see if a buy-in point emerges. I can always start a new screen, but it would be nice if the application would prompt me before I delete ( close window ) a list that took weeks to set up.
One stock that caught my eye on was Orbital Sciences Corp ( ORB) . There was a very small inside buy the other day, and it gapped up today. Very interesting play, hopefully it dips under fifeteen. The maker of rockets has blasted off since dipping under eleven last October. The stock may be a little overbought, then again, it may just be in geo-synchronous orbit, a little rich. This stock would go on any new watch list of mine.
Another inside-buy related stock that did well today was TRC Companies ( TRR ). From a purely technical standpoint, seems to be a good ingress point. The stock pps recently crossed above the 200 day sma, and the 20 day simple moving average is about to. Also involved in wind-energy related projects. Yahoo says they have 2,400 employees, and a market cap of $175M. Can I live with average daily volume smaller than Novatel....
Caliper Life Sciences ( CALP) caught my eye on the inside-buy screen. The reason they are interesting right now, is the pps has crossed the 200 day line, and the 20-day sma is turning upwards. Technically a good ingress point; the price/sales of 2.54 makes anything under six dollars a speculative buy. They have been losing money for years, but the top line has been steadily growing. They may even be on the verge of reporting a positive quarterly eps.
Closing with the stock that reminded me why I love to follow the inside buys: ICO, Inc. ( ICOC). Insiders have been buying for months, all the way up to $3.92. Today's close was $4.58. I had a limit order for them, but took it off because the business wasn't sexy enough. They sell resins and quarterly sales have been flat recently. Looks like they made seven cents per share in their best quarter ever. There is something to that inside buying, though.
If I had to choose the pick to click, it would be CALP, just a feeling. Buon fortunados....
One stock that caught my eye on was Orbital Sciences Corp ( ORB) . There was a very small inside buy the other day, and it gapped up today. Very interesting play, hopefully it dips under fifeteen. The maker of rockets has blasted off since dipping under eleven last October. The stock may be a little overbought, then again, it may just be in geo-synchronous orbit, a little rich. This stock would go on any new watch list of mine.
Another inside-buy related stock that did well today was TRC Companies ( TRR ). From a purely technical standpoint, seems to be a good ingress point. The stock pps recently crossed above the 200 day sma, and the 20 day simple moving average is about to. Also involved in wind-energy related projects. Yahoo says they have 2,400 employees, and a market cap of $175M. Can I live with average daily volume smaller than Novatel....
Caliper Life Sciences ( CALP) caught my eye on the inside-buy screen. The reason they are interesting right now, is the pps has crossed the 200 day line, and the 20-day sma is turning upwards. Technically a good ingress point; the price/sales of 2.54 makes anything under six dollars a speculative buy. They have been losing money for years, but the top line has been steadily growing. They may even be on the verge of reporting a positive quarterly eps.
Closing with the stock that reminded me why I love to follow the inside buys: ICO, Inc. ( ICOC). Insiders have been buying for months, all the way up to $3.92. Today's close was $4.58. I had a limit order for them, but took it off because the business wasn't sexy enough. They sell resins and quarterly sales have been flat recently. Looks like they made seven cents per share in their best quarter ever. There is something to that inside buying, though.
If I had to choose the pick to click, it would be CALP, just a feeling. Buon fortunados....
Tuesday, March 14, 2006
chartology
Newfield Exploration (NFX) has about finished dropping through the floor. Still several standard deviations away from the 200 -day moving average.
Newfield did manage to close around the 20 day; today's chart almost confirms a doji star. I have dollar cost averaged from 44 in faith of a summer rebound. I don't know anything about Blackbeard, and I don't believe everything I hear.
Ryerson, Inc., (RYI) is a stock that initially did well, but has now retraced back to the 100-day line, right in the channel. I averaged down already at these levels. Don't know what is holding them back; last year's eps of four dollars has jammed the multiple down to six. Next earnings report will be crucial for them, since the quarterly numbers have been falling.
Cram another volume into the 'what was I thinking,' department. Before I invested in RACK, I put a shtetl on SanDisk (SNDK). My shares were purchased at what few would consider an ideal ingress point: right in the middle of the death's cross at fifty-six. The stock pps had already crossed under the 100 day moving average, and the 20-day sma was about to. Not the best decision from a timing perspective. Still love the flash memory.
The three above charts represent stocks that are in the doghouse; very grateful to be above water at this point. Each chart is a high/low/close candlestick with 50 and 200 -day sma.
nice rack
Decent day so far. Rackable Systems opened down a dollar, to consolidate yesterday's gains, and has come all the way back to green. Possible monster stock. No huge issues today; NGPS is a little weaker, by about fifty cents. WPCS is slightly lower, and is right in the channel. NFX started a bit weaker, now has reversed to green. An up day today makes three up days in a row, and four out of five. Very close to getting over the 200 day sma support level. Think that's all for now. Maybe start looking around for a new blogverse.
Monday, March 13, 2006
Ex Post Facto
Spent a good part of the day studying charts. There are so many different charts; can anyone tell what a Williams accumulation chart shows that a high/low/close chart doesn't. What does a MACD tell me about a stock that I can't feel by watching it all the time? That the pps is one standard deviation away from the mean, basically. For example, this is the most basic of charts from Yahoo, but very serviceable. Newmont Metals hit a fifty-two week high, which is naturally the place this excitable, uneducated investor plowed in. A month later, the stock has broken down, well below the 50 -day simple moving average, closing in on the 200.
E*trade has an even better chart I can pull up in a few clicks, from within the real-time java application. I can compare any number of moving averages against the price per share. Overlapping two simple moving averages reveals a death's cross; the 10-day sma has dropped well past the 100-day sma. My strategy at this point is to possibly buy more shares under the 200 day pps average of about $46. peace out for now...
Friday, March 10, 2006
confessions of a google basher
One thing I try to teach myself is not to get emotionally invested in the stocks I trade. It can be difficult; poor timing or unsound decisions can make one feel frustrated. There was one message yesterday on the NYX board. They had purchased on the advice of a friend, and had lost $75,000. The person said they felt so bad they wanted to cry.
I have felt a level of that soreness. I recently dodged the path of a major hurt, because that limit order for RTSX around $29 dollars almost went in. Whew! Or, sometimes I fail to act on a stock when I have been presented with a desirable ingress point, like Joy Global (JOYG) or Air Methods. And, I am still learning proper egress from a core position; one day after selling all my STP a day too late, I determined to become reborn. How I would have liked to hold two shares of every company I've ever traded. I could have added to positions like Elan and Armor Holdings, and gotten invited to a few annual meetings along the way. I just reduced my already small SanDisk holding, with a $53 limit order. I will be able to keep an eye on the stock. If it goes up, good. If it goes down, I can follow it all the way and double-down (if I believe in the equity).
My Logitech USB optical mouse started dying yesterday, and I had to go out to Fry's to get a replacement. My choice was the 'Inland' for $7.99, which didn't work at all. Back to Fry's I went, this time for a Microsoft Comfort Optical Mouse 3000. I actually spent thirty dollars for a mouse. I could have bought another Logitech, which I loved, for half the price. But if it only works for a year, it's not worth it. Dunno why paying twice as much was such a good idea, either. The last Mock-rosoft optical mouse I had, also died a premature death. Why is it that a unit with no moving parts, just stops working.
The 1000 DPI is a nice feature, but I'm not sure my LCD monitor supports it. My video game seemed to have a harder time putting the cross-hairs on a target. What gets me are the sixty dollar mice for 'expert gamers'. From 1600 DPI on up. The action on this scroll-wheel is smooth, instead of discrete increments; my index finger can't sense each unit up or down. Now the up and down scrolling using the wheel can be set fast or slow.
Almost everything is up a little so far today. Why I ever kept more than two shares of ValueCluck, Inc. (VCLK), I'll never know. I wanted a champagne internet play at a Miller High Life price. What I got was a piece of an industry in the midst of a click-fraud scam. I've been saying that since last summer, after reading about Google's tactics with their customers. On the other hand, I'm pleased with the mini breakout in Art Technology Group, Inc. (ARTG). Might test $3.50 today, which is good for a stock that was very recently under a buck.
Don't really have the cash to burn on any moves right now; too bad because RTSX was on sale for twenty dollars a share when I woke up. Next week maybe we'll be taking a little off SFCC and NGPS. I'm hoping for a small bounce in LifeCell, Inc. (LIFC), to lighten that load. One day it is up a buck and a half, the next day it's down $1.50. There is definite resistance at around $23, when all the sellers come out.
I'm not really a basher. I pick my spots on the message boards. There was a message on the Air Methods, Inc. (AIRM), board the other day from a guy who just sold all his shares, saying that a 300% return was the best he could do. I replied to his message with the tone of voice of Jerry Seinfeld's building superintendant, "'ooooh, everyone look at me and my big brain,' if you're so smart why not leave 15% on the table." Not really interested in reading about other people gloat. This is almost a zero-sum game. Take your winnings and leave with your mouth closed. Why not be happy for him? I do feel a little emotion, perhaps, because I didn't buy after it found my inside-buy screen. His windfall and joy do absolutely nothing for me personally, and that mock self-deprecation only amplifies the chest-thumping.
anyway...
peace patience prosperity
I have felt a level of that soreness. I recently dodged the path of a major hurt, because that limit order for RTSX around $29 dollars almost went in. Whew! Or, sometimes I fail to act on a stock when I have been presented with a desirable ingress point, like Joy Global (JOYG) or Air Methods. And, I am still learning proper egress from a core position; one day after selling all my STP a day too late, I determined to become reborn. How I would have liked to hold two shares of every company I've ever traded. I could have added to positions like Elan and Armor Holdings, and gotten invited to a few annual meetings along the way. I just reduced my already small SanDisk holding, with a $53 limit order. I will be able to keep an eye on the stock. If it goes up, good. If it goes down, I can follow it all the way and double-down (if I believe in the equity).
My Logitech USB optical mouse started dying yesterday, and I had to go out to Fry's to get a replacement. My choice was the 'Inland' for $7.99, which didn't work at all. Back to Fry's I went, this time for a Microsoft Comfort Optical Mouse 3000. I actually spent thirty dollars for a mouse. I could have bought another Logitech, which I loved, for half the price. But if it only works for a year, it's not worth it. Dunno why paying twice as much was such a good idea, either. The last Mock-rosoft optical mouse I had, also died a premature death. Why is it that a unit with no moving parts, just stops working.
The 1000 DPI is a nice feature, but I'm not sure my LCD monitor supports it. My video game seemed to have a harder time putting the cross-hairs on a target. What gets me are the sixty dollar mice for 'expert gamers'. From 1600 DPI on up. The action on this scroll-wheel is smooth, instead of discrete increments; my index finger can't sense each unit up or down. Now the up and down scrolling using the wheel can be set fast or slow.
Almost everything is up a little so far today. Why I ever kept more than two shares of ValueCluck, Inc. (VCLK), I'll never know. I wanted a champagne internet play at a Miller High Life price. What I got was a piece of an industry in the midst of a click-fraud scam. I've been saying that since last summer, after reading about Google's tactics with their customers. On the other hand, I'm pleased with the mini breakout in Art Technology Group, Inc. (ARTG). Might test $3.50 today, which is good for a stock that was very recently under a buck.
Don't really have the cash to burn on any moves right now; too bad because RTSX was on sale for twenty dollars a share when I woke up. Next week maybe we'll be taking a little off SFCC and NGPS. I'm hoping for a small bounce in LifeCell, Inc. (LIFC), to lighten that load. One day it is up a buck and a half, the next day it's down $1.50. There is definite resistance at around $23, when all the sellers come out.
I'm not really a basher. I pick my spots on the message boards. There was a message on the Air Methods, Inc. (AIRM), board the other day from a guy who just sold all his shares, saying that a 300% return was the best he could do. I replied to his message with the tone of voice of Jerry Seinfeld's building superintendant, "'ooooh, everyone look at me and my big brain,' if you're so smart why not leave 15% on the table." Not really interested in reading about other people gloat. This is almost a zero-sum game. Take your winnings and leave with your mouth closed. Why not be happy for him? I do feel a little emotion, perhaps, because I didn't buy after it found my inside-buy screen. His windfall and joy do absolutely nothing for me personally, and that mock self-deprecation only amplifies the chest-thumping.
anyway...
peace patience prosperity
Thursday, March 09, 2006
swing trader
that would be the closest description of my type of trading style. I try to get to know a stock very well, even listening to the conference calls. The numbers are the most important thing to me, as in earnings per share.
The other day, what few shares I had in SFBC International (SFCC) were down hard. There had been some more manipulation, er, I mean, news about the company. After they released earnings, everything came out in the wash, so to speak. There is guidance for 2006, and it supports a pps around twenty -two dollars a share. There are some macro factors affecting the price today, among them an enormous short squeeze and options day next week. Should be volatile. I would like to trim a few shares around $27, then see if the covering begins to take us to thirty.
So, since I was feeling rich, I bought two shares of NYSE Group, Inc (NYX), around $86, market buy. I'm sure E*trade loves being the haven of the small-time retail investor. I missed out on CBOT Holdings (BOT), so maybe this will make up for that one.
Other than that, a relatively good day after Monday and Tuesday's melt-downs, and yesterday's scare. Novatel, Inc., (NGPS) is bouncing back from the earnings sell-off. Nvidia (NVDA) looking like it will test fifty again. Even the metals are reversing. Good chance of being at break-even by tomorrow. Buon Fortunados
The other day, what few shares I had in SFBC International (SFCC) were down hard. There had been some more manipulation, er, I mean, news about the company. After they released earnings, everything came out in the wash, so to speak. There is guidance for 2006, and it supports a pps around twenty -two dollars a share. There are some macro factors affecting the price today, among them an enormous short squeeze and options day next week. Should be volatile. I would like to trim a few shares around $27, then see if the covering begins to take us to thirty.
So, since I was feeling rich, I bought two shares of NYSE Group, Inc (NYX), around $86, market buy. I'm sure E*trade loves being the haven of the small-time retail investor. I missed out on CBOT Holdings (BOT), so maybe this will make up for that one.
Other than that, a relatively good day after Monday and Tuesday's melt-downs, and yesterday's scare. Novatel, Inc., (NGPS) is bouncing back from the earnings sell-off. Nvidia (NVDA) looking like it will test fifty again. Even the metals are reversing. Good chance of being at break-even by tomorrow. Buon Fortunados
Tuesday, March 07, 2006
Opening Day Futures
Dollar cost averaged more Newfield shares today, at $36.88. Next stop, thirty-two. I'm not buying more unless it gets under thirty. Those shares could double by summer; each time I miss the bottom, though, I start wondering if I should have just sat out until April. Those baseball stadiums use a lot of electricity to power their light banks.
Also bought some SanDisk, (SNDK), at 56.88. This may be a support level after getting kicked around a little. While they face pressure on margins from Samsung and everyone, this flash memory is the hot thing. I can't wait until they have laptop computers with 200 gig flash memory 'hard drives' that load your operating system in two seconds.
Hopefully be able to hook up some Rackable Systems (RACK). I moved my limit order to $39.62 just now. The numbers on the income statement knocked my socks off. I sort of understand their business. I wonder if they make any 'green' servers that use less energy, like the Sun line.
Still very exhausted from another run to LAX that lasted until Sunday morning. Losing a night of sleep seems to drain me for days now. Before, I would drink a little and report to work the next day. Going to put together a network 'starter kit' for sale on Ebay, including cable, jacks, ties, patch panel, the whole schmear. If I can ever find the energy. If I could ever find the energy, I would create all the super fan devotional pages I've always wanted. The Morgan Webb fan page. The Erin Burnett fan page. How much to put one Maria Sharapova image on my blog. peace out.
Also bought some SanDisk, (SNDK), at 56.88. This may be a support level after getting kicked around a little. While they face pressure on margins from Samsung and everyone, this flash memory is the hot thing. I can't wait until they have laptop computers with 200 gig flash memory 'hard drives' that load your operating system in two seconds.
Hopefully be able to hook up some Rackable Systems (RACK). I moved my limit order to $39.62 just now. The numbers on the income statement knocked my socks off. I sort of understand their business. I wonder if they make any 'green' servers that use less energy, like the Sun line.
Still very exhausted from another run to LAX that lasted until Sunday morning. Losing a night of sleep seems to drain me for days now. Before, I would drink a little and report to work the next day. Going to put together a network 'starter kit' for sale on Ebay, including cable, jacks, ties, patch panel, the whole schmear. If I can ever find the energy. If I could ever find the energy, I would create all the super fan devotional pages I've always wanted. The Morgan Webb fan page. The Erin Burnett fan page. How much to put one Maria Sharapova image on my blog. peace out.
Friday, March 03, 2006
Buy on News, Sell on Rumor
There are so many trite aphorisms in the investing culture. Since I am so late in life getting to the party, I'm still learning as I go along.
Soaked up some SFCC at $18.28 a few minutes after the open. Too bad I can't make AH and pre-market trades with Etrade. The low overnight was under sixteen. It was a matter of believing that most of the bad news was priced into the stock already. 2006 valuations are out the window, because they have to re-state earnings and are withdrawing guidance. Not pure speculation, but liking an entry point. I should have had a limit order ready for the open because there was a large sale.
Getting an itchy trigger finger.
When my beloved and I moved to our Clairemont chateau, we had to wait two weeks for cable tv and internet. It was a period akin to the Dark Ages, with radio our only real-time infotainment. Time Warner finally dropped off the basic digital package on Tuesday. Since then, I have spent hours playing "Call of Duty - United Offensive." Even though the game is a few years old, I like the multiplayer. There is enough map room for a lone soldier to go behind the lines and cause havoc. There was an eight-on-eight base assault game yesterday, and I kept killing the same player, over and over, all over the place. I was laughing maniacally. Another time, I climbed a hill dividing the lines. After waiting a moment behind a low stone wall, a jeep carrying two enemy approached. I unloaded my M1 garand on the vehicle, getting them to disperse. Then I picked them off one by one.
Time Warner isn't too bad, but they want seven dollars more a month for internet access. And that is only a special offer. Cox was $27.99, and TWC is $34.99. But that goes up ten bucks in a few months. Like I'm really going to pay $45 dollars a month for internet, when my neighbor is letting me have it for free.
The thing that infuriated me was the CATV service. For $52 dollars a month, I just get channels under 100 and the box rental. Cox included everything including Encore for $57 per month. Time Warner has 'tiers' of service. It's anything but freedom of choice or a la carte. Four dollars a month gets me a tier that includes Bloomberg and G4 Tech TV. Then another four bucks a month gets me the tier with Encore. So, its more here for both services. DirectTV offers a single-dish, three-receiver system for $42 per month, with everything but Encore. I'm calling their sales office and playing one against the other. Stealing our money, they should be ashamed.
Anxiously awaiting a new video game, "The Matrix: Path of Neo." I was a bit surprised to pay only $13 for it on eBay, since it is still $49.95 in stores. I played the first Matrix game, but couldn't get past the helicopter and assault team in the airport, very early on. I entered the cheat code and beat the level, but didn't continue playing. And I was a day late getting the game back to Blockbuster. LATE FEE!
Gamespot.com gave 'Path of Neo' only a 6.8, saying it comes up short against the console version. I almost don't care. The first two weeks in this chateau, all I did was watch the Matrix trilogy. I watched the original four more times (once with commentary, once with special-effects side stories, and twice just for fun). Somewhere in there also watched 'Reloaded' and 'Revolutions' twice each. I've become fascinated with the idea of the mind as a construct. I am God's love.
Soaked up some SFCC at $18.28 a few minutes after the open. Too bad I can't make AH and pre-market trades with Etrade. The low overnight was under sixteen. It was a matter of believing that most of the bad news was priced into the stock already. 2006 valuations are out the window, because they have to re-state earnings and are withdrawing guidance. Not pure speculation, but liking an entry point. I should have had a limit order ready for the open because there was a large sale.
Getting an itchy trigger finger.
When my beloved and I moved to our Clairemont chateau, we had to wait two weeks for cable tv and internet. It was a period akin to the Dark Ages, with radio our only real-time infotainment. Time Warner finally dropped off the basic digital package on Tuesday. Since then, I have spent hours playing "Call of Duty - United Offensive." Even though the game is a few years old, I like the multiplayer. There is enough map room for a lone soldier to go behind the lines and cause havoc. There was an eight-on-eight base assault game yesterday, and I kept killing the same player, over and over, all over the place. I was laughing maniacally. Another time, I climbed a hill dividing the lines. After waiting a moment behind a low stone wall, a jeep carrying two enemy approached. I unloaded my M1 garand on the vehicle, getting them to disperse. Then I picked them off one by one.
Time Warner isn't too bad, but they want seven dollars more a month for internet access. And that is only a special offer. Cox was $27.99, and TWC is $34.99. But that goes up ten bucks in a few months. Like I'm really going to pay $45 dollars a month for internet, when my neighbor is letting me have it for free.
The thing that infuriated me was the CATV service. For $52 dollars a month, I just get channels under 100 and the box rental. Cox included everything including Encore for $57 per month. Time Warner has 'tiers' of service. It's anything but freedom of choice or a la carte. Four dollars a month gets me a tier that includes Bloomberg and G4 Tech TV. Then another four bucks a month gets me the tier with Encore. So, its more here for both services. DirectTV offers a single-dish, three-receiver system for $42 per month, with everything but Encore. I'm calling their sales office and playing one against the other. Stealing our money, they should be ashamed.
Anxiously awaiting a new video game, "The Matrix: Path of Neo." I was a bit surprised to pay only $13 for it on eBay, since it is still $49.95 in stores. I played the first Matrix game, but couldn't get past the helicopter and assault team in the airport, very early on. I entered the cheat code and beat the level, but didn't continue playing. And I was a day late getting the game back to Blockbuster. LATE FEE!
Gamespot.com gave 'Path of Neo' only a 6.8, saying it comes up short against the console version. I almost don't care. The first two weeks in this chateau, all I did was watch the Matrix trilogy. I watched the original four more times (once with commentary, once with special-effects side stories, and twice just for fun). Somewhere in there also watched 'Reloaded' and 'Revolutions' twice each. I've become fascinated with the idea of the mind as a construct. I am God's love.
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