Pre Cognition

I'm very close to finishing my unified, rational behavioral market theory. The bits and pieces are starting to add up to segments. One of the market's greatest fears, is not having timely, correct information. When information is released or not released, this fear may manifest into predictable trading patterns, concerning volatility, which allow short term swing trades in both directions.

There is always the drive to understand why something is happening. Why is the share price of Newfield Exploration (NFX) still falling? Why is their pps going down while peers (CHK, XEC) are flat or rising? The retail investor relies on information that he knows is less than the whole story. The big shots are the ones playing with the inside information, he reasons.

The motivated retail investor does a little research, and sees increased put buying on NFX. Aha! Only the market makers would have the cojones to try that, on a stock already about three standard deviations below the 200 -day moving average. They Must Know Something, he reasons. Maybe a few more weak hands sell. This is a company that reported a net loss six months ago ( due to futures hedging ) and kept going up.

Either that or it's just program trading, hey, MyDingleTrader says '... short energy during shoulder season ...' Time will tell how cheap these shares are. Today was a disaster. Third straight losing day on large volume. Information for the masses is hard to come by. I think I was the last poster on their Yahoo! message board, about a week ago.

Things are not too pleasant over at WPCS International (WPCS), either. Their message board reflects the drama of a stock price that just completed a death's cross. They will finally have a conference call tomorrow, after the closing bell. Hopefully there will be an explanation about what to expect out of the top line, which will have gone down now, three quarters in a row.

Put a sell limit order in for NVDA today at $51.08, which was not filled. Found out after the nap, er, closing bell, that Windows Vista is delayed, which could knock a buck off NVDA tomorrow. There was an analyst upgrade today, which means, 'we only need a few more suckers before we can start selling...' Er, I mean, the stock may be nearing a top, but with an up day on huge volume, I don't feel too bad. Same with RACK. I actually put a sell-limit order in yesterday for $46 per share, then took it off ten minutes later. The indicator that convinced me to stay a while longer is the ever-increasing volume on these up days. Are institutions buying...?

How fitting that SunOpta, Inc., (STKL) ring the bell to open the NasDaq on the vernal equinox. How very sorry I feel, to have parted with so many shares. I still have a few shares there, though. I consider them so highly, that I ordered some of their paper certificates. I have always wanted to hold my own stock certificate. I wonder what the design will look like, whether it will have a giant gold seal on it. I wonder if they will change their symbol and make my certificates a collector's item. They say that the will keep the symbol STKL, which represents their founding Stake Technologies steam explosion process. They don't want to confuse investors with a new symbol. Somebody must have asked them to change it. Maybe next time they'll ask real nice.

Still trying to find the right words to describe my feelings of anger and disgust with my former manager. The same one who always needs invoices and bids emailed to him twice, because he can't find them. The same one who sends me out to verify circuits that haven't been dropped off yet. Called me yesterday to say that the company is cutting off my contract in ten days. A little warning would have been nice. Yipes that sucks!

I felt horrible yesterday, for a while. Then I watched, "The Color of War," on the History Channel. The boys and men who fought and died in those tanks, always make a deep impression on me. The Sherman tank had the nickname 'Ronson,' after the cigarette lighter that "lights first time, every time." Those boys had to swallow a lot of fear, and yet they went into battle, time and again, buttoned into a thin metal canister full of fuel and high explosives.