Risk Assessment

Valero assumes the most risk in the portfolio, with more than ten percent of it's total value. That is a fair burden for a stock that is about to challenge fifty-nine dollars. The last time I swung out of VLO was at $63; think that or better is in this mini-run. The refiners are in between winter and summer blends, at least out here. Lots of vloatility!

Newfield Exploration (NFX) is the second-riskiest position with another ten percent. Today is a major vindication, with their shale announcement. They are drilling horizontally with success in a major field, to take advantage of the natural cracks and fissures in the shale. Very strong volume with shorts covering since pre-market; possibly a close above forty. Only have to get to $44 -something to start breaking even on the shares. Faithful the stock tests sixty this summer.

Storied SFBC Int'l (SFCC) has come to assume another eight percent of the total. I could have sold already for a quick thirty percent return. It is just so pleasurable to watch more shorts cover each day. I remember being on the other side of this squeeze, not four months ago. Now, I don't look at the intra-day chart anymore, just the close. If there is still a huge short interest out there, they would have so many days to cover, which I should check into. There still might be a long entry point under twenty five. Once that figure is taken out, look out thirty.

Novatel, Inc. (NGPS) is my next riskiest position. The shares have increased in value by 15% in exactly three months. I haven't taken any money out yet, because the rise has been so orderly. The 20-day sma is rising, and the pps spends most of the time right above it, pulling it up. Earnings are already baked into the stock price, and I see it above $35 in a month or so.

Corning, Inc. (GLW) is more than a stock to me. It is also a connection to my sweetheart's home state. Two months into ownership with no complaints. Nice to have the highest quality glass in the world. This is also an investment in clean diesel for me.

Ryerson, Inc. (RYI) is still in a bad way. The 20 day sma has reached down to touch the 100, and the pps is under them both, creating it's own channel. This one will need to get above $26 and stay there to start recovering.

peace patience and prosperity