Monday, May 29, 2006

Gomer's Wheel

.....or, eleven things Private Pyle might say to you, in this given situation....

"Hey! It's that new Taylor Hicks song! I'm going to turn it way up!"

"You know, William Shatner once sat, right where you are. Don't worry, I used Febreeze after!"

"Hey Floyd! Why are you trying to wrestle with Barney like that....?"

"Hey, Otis, would you mind sticking your head out the moon roof, next time you projectile vomit your Jagermeister..?"

"Sergeant Carter, would you mind driving until we get to the Dog Star?"

"Aunt Bea, I think a space wasp just landed in your bonnet"

"'O, sole mio, sta nfronte a te!"

"Sheriff Taylor, I think she's running a little rich!!"

"Looks like I got high score, again. Surprise, surprise, surprise!"

"Please put your seat belt on, and, yep, prepare to be assimilated."

"Oooops. I think I should have turned left at Ursa Major. Would you please put down the GameBoy and bring up the holo-map?"

Saturday, May 27, 2006

Alpha Blondy

Another artist been meaning to get around to. I have known about Alpha Blondy since the nineties, because of my interest in reggae. I really connected with his art this week, by hearing a song I downloaded mostly for the title, called, "Jerusalem." His pull on me is so strong, that I wandered into Native Sun today and bought his 1987 breakthrough, "Apartheid is Nazism," from Shanachie Records.

Even if you are not a big fan of the hippie lettuce, "Apartheid is Nazism," is the most accessible reggae you will ever hear. There isn't a single song instructing any one to pass any duchy. From the first play, the listener will appreciate the textured melodies, and thoughtful, arranged harmonies between the instrumentals, and the vocals. My favorite song right now is called Sebe Allah Y'E. I have no idea what it means, but it grooves and takes makes me to a spiritual plane. The title song, "Apartheid is Nazism," instructs America to help "break the neck of this apartheid."

At the time Blondy was writing the song, one can only imagine the terror the children of South Africa were enduring. In the year 1985, this pig named Botha was leading the slaughter of thousands of his country's people. However, South African universities were still cranking out professionals by the thousands. I wonder what subjects, law students at the time had to master. What did they teach their lawyers back then, "101 Ways to Perpetuate the White Supremacy."

Whatever. In 1985, I was marching against apartheid. Even though the golden age of student protest in this country was the sixties, some good things are destined to live forever. Like safe college boys, grabassing sorority girls, grasping the issue du'jour if it might get him laid. I give Blondy a ton of credit for his effort. His message helped the giants of American supremacy wage yet another successful war against a fascist enemy.

This one wasn't quite General Motors switching from sedans to tanks. More like the Coca-Cola Company and Citi Group and others deciding that they could live without their thirty pieces of silver, from that nation. But the actions by American corporations helped demonstrate that no single nation could survive, without the assent of the greater league of civilized nations. The economic sanctions, I believe, helped convince the Botha regime that their cause was both criminal, as well as futile.

Alpha Blondy was born Seydou Kone, on January 1, 1953, in Dimbokro, Ivory Coast, he was raised by his grandmother, Cherie Coco. She taught him the wisdom of the Koran, and the traditional morality of his own people, The Dioula. The Dioula taught him tolerance and racial acceptance alongside his French biblical and English lessons. Ms. Cherie also gave him the nickname, 'Blondy', a slang pun on the Dioula word for bandit.

"Jerusalem," is a song of devotion about the city, and what it represents to the people of the world. Ground sacred to half the world's population, the trees are comfortable with an array of baffling tongues there. Blondy easily switches among languages such French, and English, to pidgin, and so on. In the song, "Jerusalem," he adds Arabic and pidgin Hebrew to create a bridge between Jew and Muslim. Children will freely cross that bridge again, someday. The world just needs another Martin Luther King, Jr.

I hope to bridge a much smaller gulf before my father passes on. My father is a direct descendant of Abraham (so is each and every Arabic Muslim AND Palestinian). My father has never discussed religion with me, ever. In 1984, we shared an airplane ride to the holy land. We also shared a hotel room, and several meals. But that was just about all we shared.

The high point of his pilgrimage, became my personal low point. When we arrived at the Western Wall, he told me to wait at the top of the hill, with the women. This trip came down to me, observing my father pray from a distance, to an entity, that he personally denies me. I remember watching him bow his head, and put a single hand on the wall.

I love my father with a dear, yet respectful tenderness. I feel he unwittingly makes a few mistakes that I am determined not to repeat, with my children.

By now, I have got my head around the fact that he created five of us, then left. I am my father's son. I have turned "lack of a father figure" -pity into a reason to always try to work harder and smarter than other men. Since the day he turned his back on the Atlee house's front door for the last time, he has never stopped proving his worth as a father and a mensch. My father has worked very hard, his whole life, and really made something out of himself, something us kids aspire to. He was the son of immigrants, people who were suddenly compelled by Cossacks to decide between moving, converting, or perishing.

He has provided his children with all the material things they could rightfully ask for. He has worked hard to make emotional connections with each of us. But he did some unintentional damage by issuing his One Guiding Wish for me, and re-inforcing it since I was a boy. He would always say, "I just want you to be happy."

He has always treated religion like it is a man's most personal bastion. I don't know where he got that one. Jesus tells a man in Matthew to go pray in his closet. Jesus the Teacher was commenting on the Jewish 'hypcocrites', who "love to pray standing in the synagogues and in the corners of the streets, that they may be seen of men."

Maybe The Son's elegant Lesson, somehow put another son of David a little too far out of whack?! I don't know that my father has ever taken the dogma out of christianity and just felt the words that Jesus said. Perhaps he still feels betrayed by my mother. She converted to Judaism for the sake of my father's family, then, after he left, turned around and raised us as good Flintridge Episcopalians.

I was circumsized by a rabbi. I may be considered Jewish. If my mother undertook the sacred Jewish bath, and IF my moyal was Orthodox. I could try to find out right now by picking up the phone, or I may never know. Every attempt to consciously connect with my father on a spiritual level has been met with resistance. One day we sat talking in his study, and I picked up a book from his shelf. It was Abba Eban's "My People - The Story of The Jews."

He told me to put the book back in it's place, because that was HIS book, and therefore does not belong to me. This is a man who unconsciously schleps to me every WEB Griffin pulpy dreck, but, no, the Jewish book only belongs to him?! This is a situation that will be amended somewhat when my children are old enough for instruction on morality.

Thank you for caring so much about my personal interests! It wasn't for many years that I realized what an enormous disservice his One Guiding Wish was providing. It is a parent's responsibility to make sure their child is good. It is up to the child to decide whether or not to be happy. One of the rare things that should fly out of this father's pie-hole, is, "I expect you to be good."

Dream World

Peter Garrett IS the Law West of The Pecos. Stone, cold lyrics matched to wicked guitar licks. If this song can rock my core network, after twenty years, then I imagine my grandchildren will have plenty of me to make fun of, as I spring out from my walker and do flying air guitar solos.

I always considered this a personal, cautionary song. The message I got after head-tossing for 3:35, was to never let my guard down. When I learned the song is really about aboriginal land rights, I had found that rare musician that I enjoy, who mixes politics with music. It helps that they picked their own battles, like nuclear disarmament. The bright spot about futility, is, at least you tried.

With such deeply layered metaphors, this song can be applied to current, everyday issues. Sort of like the "DaVinci Code," only rational, and without the DaVinci. The ONLY DaVincis that I am interested in, are the original Florentino, who went by the name Leonardo, and the WGN series, 'DaVinci's Inquest'. That show is CSI, Quincy, and Homicide all rolled into a pitch-perfect Vancouver, British Columbia setting.

"The Breakfast Creek Hotel is up for sale
The last square mile of terra firma gavelled in the mail
So farewell to the Norfolk Island pines
No amount of make believe can help this heart of mine

End - your dreamworld is just about to end
Fall - your dreamworld is just about to fall
Your dreamworld will fall

So shut that buckle and turn that key again
Take me to a place they say the dreaming never ends
Open wide drive that mystery road
Walk through eden's garden and then wonder as you go (it goes -ed.)

Sign says honeymoon to rent
Cloudland into dreamland turns
The sun comes up and we all learn
Those wheels must turn"

from Diesel and Dust, CBS Records, 1987

Tuesday, May 16, 2006

Rush Hour

Hey! use your blinker next time, fellah.

This is how I would like to watch, "Chitty-Chitty Bang-Bang," someday. Buckled into a the cockpit of a tricked-out recliner with Dolby 7.1 Surround Sound.
....................
That bird looks like he wants to make on our car.....

Friday, May 12, 2006

Planet Earth is Blue There's Nothing I Can Do

That would be an excellent branch off the serenity prayer. The one every recovering alcoholic has memorized. God grant me the serenity to accept things I cannot change, the courage to change things that must, and the wisdom to separate them. They are just words to some people. Not to me.

Words have never been, "just words." They are the conscious descendants of our primal sounds and songs. They resonate internally; a good lyric accompanies it's musical instrument like a soulmate. True, divine words are layered, and inspire our inner allegory. The twenty-third Psalm is infinitely more than an assemblage of words. The Parable of the Sower speaks to every endeavor. People who say 'sticks and stones can break your bones, but words can never hurt you,' are sleep-walking. That's baby-talk.

The freight of words comes with it's own bill of lading. Today, the market is down, and my portfolio seems like a mess. As we close out the week from beyond imagination, I would like to take time and reflect and give thanks for past success. True, this week saw the P & L swing from ten percent up, to three percent down. We've been there before, and we'll be there again.

This was the week that realized my single best percentage trade. The $4.58 SunOpta shares turned in a nice 125% return in thirteen months. My newly opened short position there is already positive. Plus, I realized another short-term gain off Vical, Inc. I got in the upward-bound VICL on the first day of February, for that very same price, $4.58. Feeling slightly better than neutral about possibling swinging to a short position there.

I am grateful for several, expensive, investing lessons learned this week. Most of the gains and losses are beyond my control. I could not have foreseen Brightpoint announcing a 6 for 5 stock split, and diluting to a cool fifty million shares. I tried to be patient before making that trade, but I was only looking in the wrong direction. After waiting two weeks for the price to come back under thirty, I didn't even watch my limit order. An hour later, I was down a buck a share. Now I have to watch the stock more closely than others. The play here is to cut losses by selling and/or going short over twenty-five. Their gross margins grighten the gregarious out of me.

I am grateful just to have this liquidity. In the coming weeks, I can look forward to finally being on a level playing field, twelve hours a day. I can hedge existing gains and harvest good returns by inversing charts and selling short. The market is down? I could troll for bargains today. Go over my watch lists and see who is on sale. My next move may be to short Titanium Metals or some other over-heated commodity stock.

Peace Patience and Prosperity

Thursday, May 11, 2006

A Life That is Led is No More Than a Token

".....Who’ll strike the flint upon the stone and tell me why....."

Propers to Midnight Oil. The first notes of their song, "Blue Sky Mine," would be a great ring tone for incoming business calls. Aussies just rock. The lyrics to the song are deceptively layered, "If I yell out at night, there's a reply of bruised silence." And the opening harmonica goes right through me, and makes me jump out of my skin. It's a very rare riff that induces an electric surge that is broadcast from my brain and forwarded to every cell like a bolt.

The top line is very endearing to me. "A life that is led is no more than a token." The image that first comes to mind is the song's hypothetical protagonist. As an employee of the Blue Sky Mining Company, he is completely dependent on their largesse. He survives on little more than faith and hope, singing, "hope the crumbs in my pocket can keep me for another night."

And he's got it relatively good, because he's middle management. He could be the foreman, trying to explain macro-economic conditions to his crew of miners. Among other issues, the Blue Sky Mining Company has no health plan, "I'm caught at the junction still waiting for medicine." He wonders, "if the ... company won't come to my rescue.... who's gonna save me...?"

He works all day at the mine, alongside his men. "Still I walk up and down at the Blue Sky Mine." He is conscious of the machinations of upper management, saying "The candy store paupers lie to the shareholders." He understands the plight of his men, and even empathizes with them, recognizing that, "some have sailed from distant shores." The empathy vaporizes when referring to the company in the collective, declaring that, "The Company takes what the Company wants."

This is a sensitive man of positive ethos. The song bridges the simple dignity of the working man with the highest aspirations of us all. "The sweat of my brow keeps on feeding the engine." He understands that the company views him as a consumable expense, or a depreciating asset. He is able to transcend the vulgar course of the day by sweating his "brow," or his brain. The only asset capable of transcending depreciation. The oxidation of the physical body is inevitable. One's consiousness can be channeled into pure energy. Eternal appreciation within the ether.....

Wednesday, May 10, 2006

This is Ground Control to Major Tom

Time to add another trite aphorism to the investing handbook. I'm writing it as I go along, because I lack true investment experience. Sometimes I get caught up in the market, and I start to believe that I'm a trader. I'm not. I'm an investor. Sometimes it is okay to make a swing trade. But without complete information, it's not investing, it's gambling.

Case in point: HANS. Shorting them right before earnings was a poor decision, with several facets. I opened a short postion on a stock that I wasn't familiar with. The short position itself, was much too large. I opened my position right before earnings, which left me wide open. Now a distribution deal is further catalyzing the stock. Nice work if you can get it: a short position on a stock that is going parabolic.

HANS was not technically broken when I went short. I believe that RIMM is technically broken, and GOOG only needs a little more time. I think it makes more sense to short a stock that is starting to break down. If the price per share is under pressure, or pierces the 20-day average on its way downward, that is a sell signal. A sell situation doesn't exist just because I think a stock is overvalued.

Having said all that, I'm not going to cover yet. I listened to the entire CC, even though the speaker's voice really annoyed me. I couldn't place the accent, except that I don't believe it was Aussie. Possibly from New Zealand or South Africa. The Anhueuser Busch distribution deal, the way I understand it, calls for Hansen to sign distribution deals with each regional AB distributor.

Excuse me for asking, but wouldn't re-organizing distribution be a short-term nightmare? In more than half of Hansen's markets, the existing distributor will be replaced. I am optimistic that the company will have it's challenges. Once the contracts are signed and product ships, HANS top and bottom lines may likely swell again, as they flood a much bigger distribution pipe. If this is truly a $200 stock, then people must expect that they will soon be earning ten dollars a share. They are about a third of the way there now. The way people hang onto their shares, I guess they figure that they'll get there by next year.

I am going to hang on for another quarter, try to wait for this bad boy to come back to the 50-day line. The hell with covering a fifty-percent loss. I'm going to try to ignore the figure in red, and hopefully gravity will do it's job. I'm not asking for a correction down to the 200-day line. While that that is inevitable, I'm not sure I could wait until next year to realize it. On the other hand, for a true value, shorting at these levels is making some sense.....

Tuesday, May 09, 2006

Toasted Short

Congrats to HANS longs. I still don't get it, but the point is being driven home. Just when I think the high is in, there is another. $175.33. They announced the Anheuser-Busch distribution deal just prior to earnings. That telegraphs to me their fear that earnings might have disappointed. Otherwise, why not announce it some other time.

The conference call is in three hours. The contrary play is to lie in wait. Let the unwashed masses rub the sleep out of their eyes. Give them time to have their customary breakfast of Froot Loops and Monster. Perhaps their collective devotion will drive the price up over $180. That is my opportunity to average up, and short more.

I'm not going to cover now, not in the middle of a short squeeze. Not while there is a ten dollar gap to fill. I am going to have to look far and wide for comparisons. NTRI gapped up on an unbelievable quarter. Sales have quadrupled, and they turned in $0.63 per share. Say goodbye to the sixties, because they are not coming back. Longs there are in a good position.

HANS turns in a decent Q1, and beats by $0.14. Big deal. They only beat Q3 '05 by a penny. Their EPS is growing more slowly. An eighty-four cent quarter doesn't yield a stock price of $175. If it did, NFX would be over two hundred dollars a share. Welcome to insane-world.

Reality may be setting into the ethanol stocks. PEIX seems to have stabilized under forty-one dollars. E*Trade is still unable to borrow the share. No shorting PEIX. STKL popped to twelve dollars before some sellers jumped in. The action made me nervous enough to open a short position. Shorting STKL will hedge my gain, and give me an ethanol short to play against my energy investments.

Peace Patience and Prosperity

Monday, May 08, 2006

Market Watch

Have a general order of battle for today. Follow the action on Genentech. Might try to pick up some shares under eighty. I forecast a share price of $120 by first quarter 2008. It's a stock that felt good to own, because Avastin saves lives. If I could just get my head around the high valuation, future drug patent expirations, and employee stock compensation, then it's a pretty good deal.

I'd like to run a screen to see my results based on what day of the week trades are made. As a rule I like to buy on Monday when people are negative. Friday seems like it has been a good day to sell. Without empirical evidence, it's only intuition.

Snapped up some Gilead Sciences (GILD) on Friday. That was a relatively easy decision, just based on current valuation. Genentech's valuation is a lot trickier to forecast. I believe the EPS advances are just beginning to kick in, and the company could be earning five dollars a share by 2008. That is pricing in the assumption that Lucentis turns into the blockbuster it is shaping up to be.

Also purchased some expensive Transocean, Inc (RIG). I am really invested in energy. I hope this current capital expenditure cycle will benefit them, because their multiple is forty. Maybe I should have double-checked to make sure I didn't buy on an earnings bounce.

Time to find an ethanol play. When I owned Suntech Power (STP) and Evergreen Solar (ESLR), I found they moved lockstep with oil prices. I don't own them anymore, because of high materials costs. That will impact earnings for some time.

The ethanol producers have been very well bought lately. There might be a value play for shorting; at least I will have a hedge against lower commodity prices. I don't want to short Archer-Daniels Midland (ADM). I would like to get into a corn producer like ADM on price dips. The one I have in mind is PEIX, Pacific Ethanol, Inc.

They are a little scary. The last price for them was about thirty-five dollars per share. The latest information I have for them comes from 10-Q data on Yahoo. Revenues for Q4 ended 31 December were about $36 million, up from $26 million in Q3. They may be a little ahead of themselves, with a market cap of over a billion.

Ratones. E*Trade is unable to borrow the shares. I cannot short this stock today. Sorry, little guy. Maybe I can get my dad's broker to short the stock. E*Trade, it's official. You suck. Within you, weak is the power of the force. When I am done, the only things left in that account will be my ET shares, on margin. FOUL!

Saturday, May 06, 2006

Lara's back

'Tomb Raider: Legend' is out, and has exceeded my expectations. There are so many things right about this game, that it is easy to forget about the issues. Beta testing, for example. I run about as vanilla as it gets: Pentium 3.0, NVIDIA GeForce FX 5500. There are two instances where Lara's feet disappear into solid rock. And when I tried to manually lock onto a target, the computer froze solid.

The culprit may be the latest NVIDIA driver. One of my games compelled me to download it, and my system has been buggy since. It mostly just crashes to the desktop or reboots my cpu while I am playing BF 1942. So we'll defer judgement on the bugs until version 1.1. Publishers are so driven to get their high-margin ware on the shelves, that it is routine to release unfinished code, then issues patches.

'Legend' on the whole is a well-behaved, technically dazzling achievement. The time it takes to resume an existing game from the Windows desktop is less than fourteen seconds. Somebody at Eidos is very proud of that.

The camera angles are more than acceptable. Moving the mouse around one way allows the player a close-up of her eyes. Moving the mouse slightly again, and the player can see Lara from the back, in true third person, from above, below, and the sides.

My beloved and I spent two hours this morning together, playing 'Legend.' The game is an excellent way to bring people together, to solve the puzzles.

If they had a menu option to take out the violence, this would be a game for the whole family. Somebody tell the designers that having Lara shoot spotted leopard after leopard is sickening. I would rather be at the controls of a Messerschmidt BF-109, strafing hapless limey bastards.

In that light, I believe that EA games could easily publish a platinum seller based on the flying physics in BF 1942. They could use current mapping databases to create a system of regional airports. They could call it 'Airline Tycoon,' and it would feature all the nuts and bolts of operating airplanes. 'Airline Tycoon' could start with a novice pilot building up points for each airport flown into and out of. When the pilot has enough points or flight hours, he can purchase or lease his own equipment. Then he can ferry passengers and grow his operation. The emphasis will always be on flying: Arctic flying, VFR, weather, navigation, learning charts and instrumentation, and all types of interesting aircraft.

To beat the game, you must be able to grow your airline to the point where you are only flying because you want to. Then you can pass on the joy of running your airline, to your wife's brother. A final FMV shows you handing him the keys to the executive suite. While he gets to handle operations: shareholders, lost baggage, strikes, fuel prices, etc. You get to go restore and fly vintage aircraft.

The other day, I wanted to fly, but only fly. I loaded Battlefield 1942 to play the Battle of Britain level. I found incredible peace and joy, just skimming above the countryside. The game sports five different camera angles for the BF-109, also known as the ME-109. The default camera is like flying with a hockey mask on. Camera two is like sitting right behind the windscreeen. I can see people, sitting in their vehicles, as I rush overhead. I wheel up into the atmosphere, then bank, and the sky is underfoot and falling away. It is a rollercoaster ride on an unrestricted X-Y-Z plane.

Steel Wings

Sold all my shares of Ryerson, Inc. early Friday. The Chicago steel maker earned $32.4 million during the quarter, or $1.12 per share. That includes a gain on the sale of assets during the quarter. They sold a sweet little division that supplies the oil and gas industry in Texas and Oklahoma. That gain was $21 million dollars, or $0.44 cents per share.

I want to sell those press release numbers down the river, too. The one time gain of $21 million is sixty-eight percent of earnings. The one-time gain of twenty one million is more like $0.78 per share. Someone needs to check their math. This company just recovered from re-stating income statements going back years.

There were other factors in the sell. There was a poster on the Yahoo message board who woke up some fools. I listened to the conference call live, and their lack of candor made me laugh out loud. Many reasonable queries during Q & A were met with this dry, reflexive, "No." Thank God someone came up to meet my limit at $30.45, because I was ready to unload that bag with a market order, eeeech.

Thursday, May 04, 2006

The Sun Rose

in the east this morning, and United Health Group, Inc., wore me down a little bit more. So I sold every share for $46.68. I set my limit order right at the bid price, not even looking for an extra penny. My conviction is strong enough to go short, but there is still residual emotion. Maybe it's that Dr. McGwire's stupid face on television saying he cannot comment. Only that his options did not interfere with providing affordable health care. Why, yuh, yuh fargin' ice-hole, dere I said it.

There will be no news until their own, internal investigation is complete. That will take time, and may only raise more issues. So long, Sammy! See you in Miami! Until the multiple is squeezed down to seven.

Other than that millstone being lifted, I shorted HANS at $140. The top went in over $141, but I was asleep. I didn't hold the fact that it only took a two percent uptick to get me from 137 pre-market, to an opening past $140. Still, very comfortable with the trade. The stock has never touched it's 200-day moving average, ever. For that to continue would be a mathematical impossibility.

Another possible trade I'm waiting out is for a midwestern darling, Brightpoint, Inc. They trade under symbol CELL, and provide logistical services for wireless carriers. They came out on top of my index of telecommunications providers. Having been in telco for so long, I understand the challenges of rolling out service across carriers. Keeping my powder dry in case they dip under thirty again.

Monday, May 01, 2006

May Short

Chart of the day, courtefy Yahoo. Tried to short NYX on Thursday. E*Trade Financial rejected my order. The message that always pops up informs me, "Your sell short order cannot be processed. Short sales in this security are not allowed, as we were unable to borrow the shares."

SEC, where are you? I own shares of NYX, which I paid cash for six weeks ago. I cannot even short those, and I'll be damned to sell and realize the loss. The shares I own represent only two percent of my portfolio, so I am not being hurt. The whole thing just smells, and makes me feel like the retail investor I truly am. I started trading with emotion, after I couldn't get my way. That emotion was a little hard to see through, and I canceled a perfectly good buy-limit order for AET @ $36. That would have already been a nice ten percent swing.

NYX just goes down a little each day. The move under the 50-day sma was not followed by any meaningful reversal. By June, this one will be in the forties, well under the 200-day moving average.

TED

 BUNDY WAS PROBABL TRANS NOOBODY TALKS ABOUT THIS...THEY/THEM LEFT DETAILED NOTES ON THERE/THEM OBSESSESH WITH THE VAG