Wednesday, May 10, 2006

This is Ground Control to Major Tom

Time to add another trite aphorism to the investing handbook. I'm writing it as I go along, because I lack true investment experience. Sometimes I get caught up in the market, and I start to believe that I'm a trader. I'm not. I'm an investor. Sometimes it is okay to make a swing trade. But without complete information, it's not investing, it's gambling.

Case in point: HANS. Shorting them right before earnings was a poor decision, with several facets. I opened a short postion on a stock that I wasn't familiar with. The short position itself, was much too large. I opened my position right before earnings, which left me wide open. Now a distribution deal is further catalyzing the stock. Nice work if you can get it: a short position on a stock that is going parabolic.

HANS was not technically broken when I went short. I believe that RIMM is technically broken, and GOOG only needs a little more time. I think it makes more sense to short a stock that is starting to break down. If the price per share is under pressure, or pierces the 20-day average on its way downward, that is a sell signal. A sell situation doesn't exist just because I think a stock is overvalued.

Having said all that, I'm not going to cover yet. I listened to the entire CC, even though the speaker's voice really annoyed me. I couldn't place the accent, except that I don't believe it was Aussie. Possibly from New Zealand or South Africa. The Anhueuser Busch distribution deal, the way I understand it, calls for Hansen to sign distribution deals with each regional AB distributor.

Excuse me for asking, but wouldn't re-organizing distribution be a short-term nightmare? In more than half of Hansen's markets, the existing distributor will be replaced. I am optimistic that the company will have it's challenges. Once the contracts are signed and product ships, HANS top and bottom lines may likely swell again, as they flood a much bigger distribution pipe. If this is truly a $200 stock, then people must expect that they will soon be earning ten dollars a share. They are about a third of the way there now. The way people hang onto their shares, I guess they figure that they'll get there by next year.

I am going to hang on for another quarter, try to wait for this bad boy to come back to the 50-day line. The hell with covering a fifty-percent loss. I'm going to try to ignore the figure in red, and hopefully gravity will do it's job. I'm not asking for a correction down to the 200-day line. While that that is inevitable, I'm not sure I could wait until next year to realize it. On the other hand, for a true value, shorting at these levels is making some sense.....

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

That heavy volume at the end of a parabloic move often signals a blowoff top. Adding to your short here with a stop on the new position over the all time high would be a good bet IMHO.

TED

 BUNDY WAS PROBABL TRANS NOOBODY TALKS ABOUT THIS...THEY/THEM LEFT DETAILED NOTES ON THERE/THEM OBSESSESH WITH THE VAG