In Like a Lion

Last night I put a sell-limit order on NVDA for $58 per share. The stock has been very well bought lately. Five winning sessions in a row, the daily chart is beginning to look like the sheer granite face of El Capitan. Thirty percent return in under two months. There are some excited wags on the message board claiming this company is earning a higher multiple. That itself may be a contrary indicator. I did take the sell -limit order off for the open. It's not going to open there anyway. Yesterday the stock closed near the daily high on huge volume, so I'm going to let the dog run a bit more.

A quick look at Bloomberg energy prices to see where the commodites are headed: http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/commodities/energyprices.html shows crude oil fetching over sixty-six dollars a gallon. Natural gas futures are higher also. The energy markets are still imbalanced; crude is well supplied, distillates are not, and NG futures have been very well sold. When Russia disrupted NG supplies to the Ukraine last winter, that was a clear reminder to me that energy equals political power. Were we not pouring so much money into the coffers of certain purveyors of sour crude. Valero buys mostly Mayan heavy sour from Mexico. Love that crack spread!

Took off the $21.01 sell -limit order on LIFC as well. That one may open higher than that. I don't need the money, and the stock seems to have a floor at twenty dollars. Going to let that mutt run into the session, and possibly into next week. My sell reasons are not to avoid loss, rather, can I put the money to better use. Wow! Dividend alert: ten cents per share from Newmont Mining Corp. That stock started on a little run a while back, when everything was down. The metals are still only about halfway back to break-even. Everything else is very encouraging.

Hey, Etrade, how about that margin request. Looks like it's going to be a no, which is alright. I'm sure there is a brokerage that will let me borrow the shares to sell short out of my cash account. That's all I want to do. And maybe write a few biotech covered calls.

buonos fortunatos !

10:33 pst... thinking about a new screen, the cost of gold vs. real estate vs. wheat over super cycles. the ultimate macro screen. today is shaping up as slightly higher energy, a little better in metals. Platinum approaching eleven hundred. Gold near six. I'm looking for a palladium play. The DJIA is nearing triple digit lower.

I think I'm sitting another day out. Not fully by choice, because I tried out my new margin account. Wouldn't let me short a certain 'engine' firm at $386 because my cash funds haven't been moved over yet. And, since LIFC is gapping today on volume, I'm not going to sell my shares just yet. I'll see where the stock is at the close.

The standard options contract is for 100 shares. I believe I will get there with one of the stocks currently on my top line by the end of this year. More than a hundred shares of Valero or Newfield, or Ryerson, or Corning. I'm closest with SFCC. That is a pretty large bet, only Ryerson is also that reachable. After today's close, LIFC might get in that company. Maybe STKL will have an options chain soon, now that it is on the 'DAQ.

Haven't sold the NVDA yet. Today's correction is a the result of a mathematical matter of time. Coming soon to your PC: MonkeyTrader. The image of Tarzan standing on the porch of his tree-house, high above the jungle floor. "Bye, Jane, see you after work," he motions to his beloved, then jumps onto a vine. He starts a downward trajectory, accelerating into the upward portion, then slows a bit near the apex, where he deftly grabs another vine.

Acceleration theory. For the model to work, one has to assume that Tarzan can get home after his shift at the frond factory, down on the jungle floor. The energy injected into the model is me; Tarzan is super strong, so he can use his arm muscles to snap the vine and create super-acceleration with each swing.

21:21 pst wow what a great day! Will be seen to have been or not...., but this moment, in this house, my beloved and our surroundings, and the sheer potential of tomorrow....

Sold short some Google today. I believe there is a classic head and shoulders formation on the chart. Maybe people are getting about full of groveling for their page rankings. Maybe it was the five billion dollar secondary offering today. If I were long, I would not be comfortable here. Newfield Exploration, on the other hand, recently needed a little money for CAPEX. They floated a 550 -million dollar debt run. This Newfield long shareholder is a little more comfortable with that.

What about bonds? Major Economics just knows that the price goes down when the yield goes up. Other than that, I've never invested in a bond. That diversification confuses Major Economics, who can be a bull-headed growth monger. The time to go long bonds might be after the fed stops raising rates. The time to set my snooze alarm for bonds would certainly be once the quarterly GDP starts contracting.

Right now the labor market is a bit tight. That's why I believe six percent is a real possiblity. A possiblity this bull market would have a hard time with. I would rather see the Fed pause at five percent, then watch the labor market for signs of wage inflation. I don't believe there will be that big a threat from wages because global competition is keeping them low. If inflation does flare up, we will get a good indication from commodities, and they can jack them up a point by surprise, for all I care. It's not the measured rate increases I really have a problem with. I would have liked to see some larger rate increases earlier on, followed by smaller rate increases at further and further intervals. And why the drop by the Fed all the way down to one percent. That created too much liquidity in the market. I hope that doesn't someday become the fly in the former chairman's legacy. peace patience and prosperity