insight or madness

Sometimes I get a stock symbol bouncing around in my crag. I can't tell whether it is a catchy ticker or my self telling me, that "it's the one..." One such company was Knology, Inc. (KNOL). The inner dialogue was tuned in to that stock in December, after the gap up. It made my inside -buy screen and kept moving up. I was making other decisions at the time, using cash for other opportunities. At the time, an investment in Time Warner Telecom (TWTC) would have taken me on a similarly good run. After consolidating, KNOL has gapped up twice recently, and is very well bought.

Ryerson, Inc., (RYI) announced they would have to restate earnings going back to 2003, with a cumulative reduction of earnings of $600,000. Yawn. We'll see how this affects the stock, since they had the courtefy of announcing after hours Friday. The stock is poised for a reversal. The pps is riding a rising 100 day average. No sense selling at this point, rather, waiting and buying below the 200-day line (currently under twenty-two dollars).

That's about all the luminousity for now. I was toying with the idea of changing my online character's name to Carl Hanratty, from the movie, "Catch Me if You Can." Then again, there's Frank Abegnale, Jr. I may have been killed by that guy once. I changed my game character's name to 'lowest score possible.' Whenever another player 'kills' my character, his screen will scroll, "you killed 'lowest score possible.'" Hopefully take some of the ego out of being the oldest player with the slowest hand-eye coordination.

deductions, academic

I was about full of 'Medal of Honor: Allied Assault,' finding the multiplayer arena somewhat void after a difficult and incomplete install. So all last night, I attempted a full install of the Battlefield 1942 series, including the Road to Rome. Before I could play, GameSpy prompted me to upgrade to 1.6.19, which was a big upgrade (254mg). GameSpy then prompted me to download the v1.6 - v1.61b patch.

Every time I tried to load BF 1942 from GameSpy, I kept getting an error that said, 'map not found.' I can see the maps in the BF 1942 directory. I couldn't rule out the patch as the source of the problem, because I ran BF 1942 multiplayer before on this same client (I remember because I got kicked from the first server I connected to, and all I was doing was trying to drive a truck). I can utilize the single-player version.

The error occured while trying to launch from the GameSpy console, which is also where 'Medal of Honor: Allied Assault," always aborted. The error messages were similar, in that GameSpy couldn't find an executable or map or path. Whenever I picked a MOHAA server to connect to, GameSpy responded that there was an error, and to "make sure the game is properly installed and that the path is correct." I thought that since I am pathed to M:\games instead of to C:\Program Files, GameSpy got all weirded-out.

So the culprit has to be GameSpy Arcade, which can then be isolated. I remembered there were four internet settings in BF 1942: 56k, ISDN, ADSL, and T1. I changed the setting from ISDN to ADSL, even though I run cable. That fixed the GameSpy problem, and the multiplayer problem in general. As a final test, I clicked on a server from the GameSpy console and promptly got greased somewhere in Tobruk. Awesome! I sowed a mustard seed of faith by bidding on a copy of the 'Secret Weapons' expansion pack on Ebay.

With BF 1942 installed properly, I looked back at the MOHAA settings, to see if I was missing anything that obvious. My internet settings were properly set for cable. I changed my settings to ISDN for grins and giggles, then went back to 'join game.' I was prompted to choose LAN game or Internet game. When I chose Internet game, I finally noticed that there are actually THREE choices: Enter I.P. Address, Launch GameSpy, and Browse Internet Servers.

The most glaringly obvious choice, Browse Internet Servers, is lettered inside a rectangular wood-grain style box, as are the other two. And, it's the on top of the other two choices. I was thrown off because under the other two choices is a rectangular green box, explaining the option. I never read the actual words, Browse Internet Servers, thinking it was a header box for the other two choices. The ones with the bright green explanations.

hehehe.

march expirations

The daily line is about to cross into the green. That would be five sessions in a row. The shorts seemed to resume covering at SFBC, Int'l. The stock has gone up every day this week, albiet on lower volume until today. The strength there is offset by weakness at WPCS. They are down around eight-fifty because they asked for an extension to file. They did say that before a special charge, they made $0.16 last quarter, and that their operations and cash flow are not affected. As soon as I can, I will be loading up more shares, since the risk is already priced into the stock.

There is a little strength in the tech side of the house, which is offset by a little weakness in energy. Hopefully NFX will come back today like it has all week. Selling early in the session, followed by buying all afternoon. I love expiration Friday!

Almost time for my first round of "Call of Duty" for the day. I felt a bit of frustration lately, trying to get online to play "Medal of Honor, Allied Assault." The only ways to play online are with a manual I.P. address of a server, or connecting through GameSpy. First off, the name isn't exactly a warm fuzzy going on my hard drive. And my anti-virus program detected it try to install two spyware programs, alaunch.cab, and Adware_Generic.CZ. Even so, I went ahead with the install.

I wrote to EA games requesting support on the issue. Why do I have to exit the program to go multiplayer. Why can't it be like MOH: Pacific Assault, where servers can be found within the game. I love EA's response: uninstall the progam. That must be the only thing on their customer service boilerplate, it's so obvious. It did lead me to the proper resolution, that was, to install the multiplayer patch.

After installing the patch, I fiddled with GameSpy for a bit, and learned how to use it. It has a central interface for all my multiplayer games. Exactly what I don't need. When I click the 'Medal of Honor' icon, it brings up a menu with games in progress all over the place: the Eastern Front, the Siegfried Line, deathmatch, and more. GameSpy keeps track of all the players, in a chat-like interface. All of the players playing all of the games on all of the servers came out to 59 total people, early this morning. The fact that GameSpy still won't actually launch the multiplayer because of yet another issue, is hence irrelevent. What a colossal waste of time.

Don't think a company like EA really cares, having left the 'Medal of Honor' franchise to wither on the vine. Evidently they have ceded the WWII shooter franchise to the 'Call of Duty' developers, who are former EA anyway. Every time EA is about to release another blockbuster video game, I take a look at the stock. Every time I come away feeling that the equity is a little overvalued; the trailing P/E is over sixty, and the price/sales is almost six. Quite a premium for a stock that isn't growing that fast anymore. Maybe I'll dig a little into Midway Games, (MWY) and try to figure out if they are going to re-join the living.

buon fortunados

SEC Form 4 noticeables

....... wandering the wasteland of companies that hit the inside-buy screen. Some real pound puppies there. Lost one of my other precious Etrade screens, a list of companies that have made the top ten winners list on the Nasdaq or NYSE. The idea behind the screen was to follow the gap for awhile and see if a buy-in point emerges. I can always start a new screen, but it would be nice if the application would prompt me before I delete ( close window ) a list that took weeks to set up.

One stock that caught my eye on was Orbital Sciences Corp ( ORB) . There was a very small inside buy the other day, and it gapped up today. Very interesting play, hopefully it dips under fifeteen. The maker of rockets has blasted off since dipping under eleven last October. The stock may be a little overbought, then again, it may just be in geo-synchronous orbit, a little rich. This stock would go on any new watch list of mine.

Another inside-buy related stock that did well today was TRC Companies ( TRR ). From a purely technical standpoint, seems to be a good ingress point. The stock pps recently crossed above the 200 day sma, and the 20 day simple moving average is about to. Also involved in wind-energy related projects. Yahoo says they have 2,400 employees, and a market cap of $175M. Can I live with average daily volume smaller than Novatel....

Caliper Life Sciences ( CALP) caught my eye on the inside-buy screen. The reason they are interesting right now, is the pps has crossed the 200 day line, and the 20-day sma is turning upwards. Technically a good ingress point; the price/sales of 2.54 makes anything under six dollars a speculative buy. They have been losing money for years, but the top line has been steadily growing. They may even be on the verge of reporting a positive quarterly eps.

Closing with the stock that reminded me why I love to follow the inside buys: ICO, Inc. ( ICOC). Insiders have been buying for months, all the way up to $3.92. Today's close was $4.58. I had a limit order for them, but took it off because the business wasn't sexy enough. They sell resins and quarterly sales have been flat recently. Looks like they made seven cents per share in their best quarter ever. There is something to that inside buying, though.

If I had to choose the pick to click, it would be CALP, just a feeling. Buon fortunados....

chartology

Newfield Exploration (NFX) has about finished dropping through the floor. Still several standard deviations away from the 200 -day moving average.

Newfield did manage to close around the 20 day; today's chart almost confirms a doji star. I have dollar cost averaged from 44 in faith of a summer rebound. I don't know anything about Blackbeard, and I don't believe everything I hear.

Ryerson, Inc., (RYI) is a stock that initially did well, but has now retraced back to the 100-day line, right in the channel. I averaged down already at these levels. Don't know what is holding them back; last year's eps of four dollars has jammed the multiple down to six. Next earnings report will be crucial for them, since the quarterly numbers have been falling.


Cram another volume into the 'what was I thinking,' department. Before I invested in RACK, I put a shtetl on SanDisk (SNDK). My shares were purchased at what few would consider an ideal ingress point: right in the middle of the death's cross at fifty-six. The stock pps had already crossed under the 100 day moving average, and the 20-day sma was about to. Not the best decision from a timing perspective. Still love the flash memory.

The three above charts represent stocks that are in the doghouse; very grateful to be above water at this point. Each chart is a high/low/close candlestick with 50 and 200 -day sma.

nice rack

Decent day so far. Rackable Systems opened down a dollar, to consolidate yesterday's gains, and has come all the way back to green. Possible monster stock. No huge issues today; NGPS is a little weaker, by about fifty cents. WPCS is slightly lower, and is right in the channel. NFX started a bit weaker, now has reversed to green. An up day today makes three up days in a row, and four out of five. Very close to getting over the 200 day sma support level. Think that's all for now. Maybe start looking around for a new blogverse.

Ex Post Facto

Spent a good part of the day studying charts. There are so many different charts; can anyone tell what a Williams accumulation chart shows that a high/low/close chart doesn't. What does a MACD tell me about a stock that I can't feel by watching it all the time? That the pps is one standard deviation away from the mean, basically. For example, this is the most basic of charts from Yahoo, but very serviceable. Newmont Metals hit a fifty-two week high, which is naturally the place this excitable, uneducated investor plowed in. A month later, the stock has broken down, well below the 50 -day simple moving average, closing in on the 200.

E*trade has an even better chart I can pull up in a few clicks, from within the real-time java application. I can compare any number of moving averages against the price per share. Overlapping two simple moving averages reveals a death's cross; the 10-day sma has dropped well past the 100-day sma. My strategy at this point is to possibly buy more shares under the 200 day pps average of about $46. peace out for now...

confessions of a google basher

One thing I try to teach myself is not to get emotionally invested in the stocks I trade. It can be difficult; poor timing or unsound decisions can make one feel frustrated. There was one message yesterday on the NYX board. They had purchased on the advice of a friend, and had lost $75,000. The person said they felt so bad they wanted to cry.

I have felt a level of that soreness. I recently dodged the path of a major hurt, because that limit order for RTSX around $29 dollars almost went in. Whew! Or, sometimes I fail to act on a stock when I have been presented with a desirable ingress point, like Joy Global (JOYG) or Air Methods. And, I am still learning proper egress from a core position; one day after selling all my STP a day too late, I determined to become reborn. How I would have liked to hold two shares of every company I've ever traded. I could have added to positions like Elan and Armor Holdings, and gotten invited to a few annual meetings along the way. I just reduced my already small SanDisk holding, with a $53 limit order. I will be able to keep an eye on the stock. If it goes up, good. If it goes down, I can follow it all the way and double-down (if I believe in the equity).

My Logitech USB optical mouse started dying yesterday, and I had to go out to Fry's to get a replacement. My choice was the 'Inland' for $7.99, which didn't work at all. Back to Fry's I went, this time for a Microsoft Comfort Optical Mouse 3000. I actually spent thirty dollars for a mouse. I could have bought another Logitech, which I loved, for half the price. But if it only works for a year, it's not worth it. Dunno why paying twice as much was such a good idea, either. The last Mock-rosoft optical mouse I had, also died a premature death. Why is it that a unit with no moving parts, just stops working.

The 1000 DPI is a nice feature, but I'm not sure my LCD monitor supports it. My video game seemed to have a harder time putting the cross-hairs on a target. What gets me are the sixty dollar mice for 'expert gamers'. From 1600 DPI on up. The action on this scroll-wheel is smooth, instead of discrete increments; my index finger can't sense each unit up or down. Now the up and down scrolling using the wheel can be set fast or slow.

Almost everything is up a little so far today. Why I ever kept more than two shares of ValueCluck, Inc. (VCLK), I'll never know. I wanted a champagne internet play at a Miller High Life price. What I got was a piece of an industry in the midst of a click-fraud scam. I've been saying that since last summer, after reading about Google's tactics with their customers. On the other hand, I'm pleased with the mini breakout in Art Technology Group, Inc. (ARTG). Might test $3.50 today, which is good for a stock that was very recently under a buck.

Don't really have the cash to burn on any moves right now; too bad because RTSX was on sale for twenty dollars a share when I woke up. Next week maybe we'll be taking a little off SFCC and NGPS. I'm hoping for a small bounce in LifeCell, Inc. (LIFC), to lighten that load. One day it is up a buck and a half, the next day it's down $1.50. There is definite resistance at around $23, when all the sellers come out.

I'm not really a basher. I pick my spots on the message boards. There was a message on the Air Methods, Inc. (AIRM), board the other day from a guy who just sold all his shares, saying that a 300% return was the best he could do. I replied to his message with the tone of voice of Jerry Seinfeld's building superintendant, "'ooooh, everyone look at me and my big brain,' if you're so smart why not leave 15% on the table." Not really interested in reading about other people gloat. This is almost a zero-sum game. Take your winnings and leave with your mouth closed. Why not be happy for him? I do feel a little emotion, perhaps, because I didn't buy after it found my inside-buy screen. His windfall and joy do absolutely nothing for me personally, and that mock self-deprecation only amplifies the chest-thumping.

anyway...

peace patience prosperity

swing trader

that would be the closest description of my type of trading style. I try to get to know a stock very well, even listening to the conference calls. The numbers are the most important thing to me, as in earnings per share.

The other day, what few shares I had in SFBC International (SFCC) were down hard. There had been some more manipulation, er, I mean, news about the company. After they released earnings, everything came out in the wash, so to speak. There is guidance for 2006, and it supports a pps around twenty -two dollars a share. There are some macro factors affecting the price today, among them an enormous short squeeze and options day next week. Should be volatile. I would like to trim a few shares around $27, then see if the covering begins to take us to thirty.

So, since I was feeling rich, I bought two shares of NYSE Group, Inc (NYX), around $86, market buy. I'm sure E*trade loves being the haven of the small-time retail investor. I missed out on CBOT Holdings (BOT), so maybe this will make up for that one.

Other than that, a relatively good day after Monday and Tuesday's melt-downs, and yesterday's scare. Novatel, Inc., (NGPS) is bouncing back from the earnings sell-off. Nvidia (NVDA) looking like it will test fifty again. Even the metals are reversing. Good chance of being at break-even by tomorrow. Buon Fortunados

Opening Day Futures

Dollar cost averaged more Newfield shares today, at $36.88. Next stop, thirty-two. I'm not buying more unless it gets under thirty. Those shares could double by summer; each time I miss the bottom, though, I start wondering if I should have just sat out until April. Those baseball stadiums use a lot of electricity to power their light banks.

Also bought some SanDisk, (SNDK), at 56.88. This may be a support level after getting kicked around a little. While they face pressure on margins from Samsung and everyone, this flash memory is the hot thing. I can't wait until they have laptop computers with 200 gig flash memory 'hard drives' that load your operating system in two seconds.

Hopefully be able to hook up some Rackable Systems (RACK). I moved my limit order to $39.62 just now. The numbers on the income statement knocked my socks off. I sort of understand their business. I wonder if they make any 'green' servers that use less energy, like the Sun line.

Still very exhausted from another run to LAX that lasted until Sunday morning. Losing a night of sleep seems to drain me for days now. Before, I would drink a little and report to work the next day. Going to put together a network 'starter kit' for sale on Ebay, including cable, jacks, ties, patch panel, the whole schmear. If I can ever find the energy. If I could ever find the energy, I would create all the super fan devotional pages I've always wanted. The Morgan Webb fan page. The Erin Burnett fan page. How much to put one Maria Sharapova image on my blog. peace out.

Buy on News, Sell on Rumor

There are so many trite aphorisms in the investing culture. Since I am so late in life getting to the party, I'm still learning as I go along.

Soaked up some SFCC at $18.28 a few minutes after the open. Too bad I can't make AH and pre-market trades with Etrade. The low overnight was under sixteen. It was a matter of believing that most of the bad news was priced into the stock already. 2006 valuations are out the window, because they have to re-state earnings and are withdrawing guidance. Not pure speculation, but liking an entry point. I should have had a limit order ready for the open because there was a large sale.

Getting an itchy trigger finger.

When my beloved and I moved to our Clairemont chateau, we had to wait two weeks for cable tv and internet. It was a period akin to the Dark Ages, with radio our only real-time infotainment. Time Warner finally dropped off the basic digital package on Tuesday. Since then, I have spent hours playing "Call of Duty - United Offensive." Even though the game is a few years old, I like the multiplayer. There is enough map room for a lone soldier to go behind the lines and cause havoc. There was an eight-on-eight base assault game yesterday, and I kept killing the same player, over and over, all over the place. I was laughing maniacally. Another time, I climbed a hill dividing the lines. After waiting a moment behind a low stone wall, a jeep carrying two enemy approached. I unloaded my M1 garand on the vehicle, getting them to disperse. Then I picked them off one by one.

Time Warner isn't too bad, but they want seven dollars more a month for internet access. And that is only a special offer. Cox was $27.99, and TWC is $34.99. But that goes up ten bucks in a few months. Like I'm really going to pay $45 dollars a month for internet, when my neighbor is letting me have it for free.

The thing that infuriated me was the CATV service. For $52 dollars a month, I just get channels under 100 and the box rental. Cox included everything including Encore for $57 per month. Time Warner has 'tiers' of service. It's anything but freedom of choice or a la carte. Four dollars a month gets me a tier that includes Bloomberg and G4 Tech TV. Then another four bucks a month gets me the tier with Encore. So, its more here for both services. DirectTV offers a single-dish, three-receiver system for $42 per month, with everything but Encore. I'm calling their sales office and playing one against the other. Stealing our money, they should be ashamed.

Anxiously awaiting a new video game, "The Matrix: Path of Neo." I was a bit surprised to pay only $13 for it on eBay, since it is still $49.95 in stores. I played the first Matrix game, but couldn't get past the helicopter and assault team in the airport, very early on. I entered the cheat code and beat the level, but didn't continue playing. And I was a day late getting the game back to Blockbuster. LATE FEE!

Gamespot.com gave 'Path of Neo' only a 6.8, saying it comes up short against the console version. I almost don't care. The first two weeks in this chateau, all I did was watch the Matrix trilogy. I watched the original four more times (once with commentary, once with special-effects side stories, and twice just for fun). Somewhere in there also watched 'Reloaded' and 'Revolutions' twice each. I've become fascinated with the idea of the mind as a construct. I am God's love.