Communications Systems

A picture is worth a thousand words, according to the ancient wisdom. An image such as the Gridley Diet chart merits a similar exchange rate.

Today is day 19 of the diet. My excess starch intake on the 29th pushed my daily weight up into the moving average. I didn't gain two pounds by eating an extra thousand calories of rice, peanut butter cookies, and ice cream. The number taken from the scale represents a bit more than my weight this morning.

Tomorrow, I can begin plotting the twenty-day moving average. Then I will have two moving averages to overlay on the daily weight. That is going to enable patterns to reveal themselves. When I have a few months of data, I will assemble a weekly chart. Once the weight comes off, the Gridley Diet Weekly chart will be ideal for weight maintenance.

Run Your Wild Horses

Valero is up in pre-market, after announcing that earnings had beat estimates by seven cents per share. That reminds me to fill up today. Maybe I'll have them check the oil level. Right after they check the air in the tires. Nevermind, echoes of a bygone era. When this Iran nuke thing reduces to a simmer, and oil goes back to the lower end of its new trading range, say sixty-two dollars /bbl, VLO's pps will correct, too. Then we'll be ready, waiting with a semi to load up on shares.

Having a margin account has made my acquisition costs a bit more expensive. I feel that I need to watch my limit orders even more closely. I also feel that I should start taking bigger positions to lower the cost percentages. Bigger positions means higher risk, and my style doesn't tolerate true risk. I own shares of just two money-losers, VICL and STXS.

Higher risk means more SFCC. Yesterday's action was telling. Early selling gave way to shorts covering, and volume is back. I set a buy limit order at an unrealistic $22.96. Wasn't so unrealistic yesterday, when the pps briefly dipped lower than that.

Also have a buy-limit order for WPCS, for $7.62. That one is even more unrealistic, and is little more than notationally buying. I do like the stock. Daddy likes the small caps.

Almost time for the open. One more week until STKL reports. I think I've figured out why this stock's pps has diverged so positively from the moving average. People are lemming into ethanol stocks, and this is partly an ethanol play. Hey, why not rush in after the Jamba Juice announcement. That will impact eps short term. The reason I didn't buy more on the dip under eight dollars, was not understanding the action. Now, I'm a little clearer. Hopefully, someone will pick up on the fact that this is also an organic food company that exceeds ethical standards with employees and the supply chain, sometimes at the expense of earnings.

Funky Friday

Funkadelic. Congrats to Google longs. I have lost seventeen percent in the short time I have borrowed the shares. I thought about covering yesterday, before earnings. I was starting to get the feeling that I really didn't understand what I was doing. Now that earnings are out, all sorts of trends are either confirmed or broken.

I still believe that shorting Google can hedge my tech gains. Today, tech is off, people are pouring into Goo, and that hedge is like an anchor. Now that the fifty-dollar move is out of the way, what is the market psychology? I am praying that enough Google longs are saying to themselves, "this is about as good as it's gonna be for a while."

I had a chance to cover all last week, after the doji star on the 5th. With this monster posting a sixty-percent gain in EPS, all sorts of new buying interest will emerge. Since this is my first short sale, I'm willing to suffer the indignity of a short-term loss, though not realized. I'll continue to hold my borrowed shares, just so I can witness the point where Goo-phoria meets reality. So today, without true conviction, all I can do is notationally average down and short more at $450.

No true complaints, since the rest of my heavy hitters are all doing their job. Sold a few shares of Valero a day early, for $66.85. Not many shares, just enough to cash in and let Newfield Exploration move up to the top line. Newfield's reversal is almost complete.... next week, their 20-day average should pierce the 200 on its way north for the summer.

I added to my shares of United Health this week, twice. I anticipated that strong earnings and guidance would reverse the stock. On Monday, I paid $52.62 with a limit order. Should have been paying attention to the bid/ask, because I could have lowered my limit all day. The next day, I also bought shares, near what I believe to be the bottom, at $47.62. Time will tell.

On Monday,went long on ALKS, after the news of the FDA approval had settled down. The half-life on last week's FDA approval was actually more than two full trading days; could have bought the shares a buck cheaper, around twenty-one, had I waited. A director exercized $125,000 worth of shares at $25 in March, so that is a small indication of a near top. We may be holding that bag awhile. Until states begin to mandate court-ordered injections for drunken driving convictions, along with twelve-step or other counseling.

Also bought some EFD near what I believe is a consolidation channel around twenty-six dollars.

Same with ORB, purchased before earnings in a somewhat longer wavelength consolidation channel at $15.30.

Finally, the chart on INTC shows a stock that has been very well sold for weeks, so I made a small investment there, at $19.48. Next average down point, anywhere from $16 on down. Doubt the pps will test lower than seventeen.

Time for dust-off. Peace.

10:22 pst Somebody please tell STKL investors that this company may become a ten dollar stock very soon, but they will be lucky to earn two bits a share, all year. I could have added more shares at eight dollars last week, but I wasn't convinced that all these new holders will be all that thrilled with the bottom line. We'll see, week after next on the 2nd, if their exploding top line alone will keep the ride alive.

Yo sueno de volar

I dream of flying. The video game giving me the most run now is 'Battlefield 1942.' I have used Ebay to buy each expansion pack, 'The Road to Rome,' and 'Secret Weapons of WWII.' Now that I have learned how to virtually fly an aircraft, that is about all I care to do these days. Thankfully, EA Games designed this game with perfect flying physics and believable battle tactics.

My favorite aircraft right now is the Douglas SBD Dauntless dive bomber. I could re-play the Battle of Midway mission all day against just bots. When I spawn into the game, I'm standing on the deck of a carrier, next to my SBD. After takeoff, I look for enemy landing craft, and shoot 'em up. When my ammo is spent, I return to the airfield for a torpedo bomber. The rest of the game, I practice my attack vectors. The wheels have to almost touch the water's surface before I can release the payload, or the torpedo will run right under the enemy ship's hull.

The aircraft I am trying to learn is the P51 Mustang. Compared to the SBD, it is like flying a bee. Someday I would like to get good at air-to-air combat, and get into dogfights. The nice thing about BF 1942, is that I believe it's possible to practice and get better. The artificial intelligence built into the 2002 Game of the Year is astonishing. It's even more so, compared with the fact that EA Games left it out of their follow-up, 'Battlefield 2.'

Each mission in BF 1942 lets you control the total number of bots on the board, and the ratio of Axis bot to Allied bot. You can also vary the enemy's total AI skills, and the CPU time given to AI. Finally, you can assign a further penalty on yourself, by having your tickets count down to zero faster. The range of difficulty of each mission can be set from easy to impossible, in tiny increments. EA Games really were ahead of their time with BF 1942's AI. I see applications like my PTSD-flying simulator based on a variation of that algorithm.

Why they took the advanced AI out of 'Battlefield 2' is a mystery. The settings on BF 2 are: Easy, Medium, and Hard. And why do all the opposing bots in BF 2 have Anglo names? I like that they gave Japanese and German proper names to the opposing forces' bots in BF 1942. Don't remember too many Chinese or Arabic people with the name, "Tony Randall." And flying an F16 on a tiny BF 2 map is about half the fun of piloting a Spitfire at El Alamein. Electronic, push-button combat is no match for flying close air support and swooping in on a Panzer, sun at my back.

Somewhat excited that Ubi's 'Pacific Fighters' will command my attention next. The loader pf.exe 3.0 doesn't see the install CD, which is a known issue with customer support. There was a live person to direct me to download the rts.dll patch, which apparently is miracle elixir. A company that makes kick-ass games and supports them, that is cool.


11:48 ... Put in a short order for RIMM, at $76.50. I believe today's death's cross will cause people to leave this stock in droves. Waiting.... ...c'mon, there was an uptick just ten minutes ago... I could also try to short CIEN today, and see which one does better, er, I mean, worse.


15:21 ... Walked back in my door just as Cramer was telling people not to buy RIMM vs. Openwave. That might be the Unix / mobile internet play I was trying to remember. I wish E*trade had an input column, so I could make a comment about a stock on my watch list like that. On the other hand, my limit order for RIMM did go in for $76.61. That was so nice of them, to pay my commission. The plan is to cover the order around sixty dollars per share, and go long under there.

Today took a solid hit on the tech side, with RFMD, LIFC, and NovAtel correcting. On the other hand, Google might be an effective hedge against my high-tech bag holdings. They took the NasDAQ down today, and made me a little bit. That is a core reason to stay short GOOG.

With so many corrections today, some buy price targets are looming. StereoTaxis (STXS) seems to get a little weaker every day. I believe medical device makers in general are under pressure. WPCS is showing signs of stabilizing, but it has only been three days since the 20 -day sma went under the 200-day sma. RACK and NVDA are just starting to price toward affordability, but UNH has been beaten up the most.

Sell price targets are not so focused. Valero almost touched sixty-four dollars today. They are my heaviest holding, and a barometer for the entire outfit. Newfield is going to have most of the spring and summer to run. NovAtel is a hold for another quarter. SFCC 's pps slipped under the 20-day average with all the intensity of a blade of grass bending under a gentle breeze. That's a hold until after Hon. Sen. Grassley issues his 'great release' and the 8-K.

My SunOpta certificate is awesome. The image is of an angel, arms outspread, protecting the fruit of the harvest. There are bright shafts of light behind the angel. And it's written in both French and English, since STKL is 'amalgamated' in Canada. Next up for the wall of fortune: PIXR. Looks like my order has gone through, because those are my only 'cash' shares. I wonder if they will send me Disney certificates when the deal is done, or just credit my account.

Google This!

I think the reason people like Google so much, is because it sounds like baby talk. Goo, goo. My first short sale is not going well at the moment. By this morning I already had a twenty-dollar per share loss, with potentially no end in sight. I just want to keep in mind the justifications for going short, and my exit strategy. I believe that the next fifty-dollar move might be up, but that the next hundred dollar move is down. I internally set the odds at 50-50 for a move back up to $475, but I reason the odds at 80% this stock will test $300 again. So I set my tolerance level going in. I can always exit early if I change my mind, but that means I'll be stuck with .