Friday, April 21, 2006

Funky Friday

Funkadelic. Congrats to Google longs. I have lost seventeen percent in the short time I have borrowed the shares. I thought about covering yesterday, before earnings. I was starting to get the feeling that I really didn't understand what I was doing. Now that earnings are out, all sorts of trends are either confirmed or broken.

I still believe that shorting Google can hedge my tech gains. Today, tech is off, people are pouring into Goo, and that hedge is like an anchor. Now that the fifty-dollar move is out of the way, what is the market psychology? I am praying that enough Google longs are saying to themselves, "this is about as good as it's gonna be for a while."

I had a chance to cover all last week, after the doji star on the 5th. With this monster posting a sixty-percent gain in EPS, all sorts of new buying interest will emerge. Since this is my first short sale, I'm willing to suffer the indignity of a short-term loss, though not realized. I'll continue to hold my borrowed shares, just so I can witness the point where Goo-phoria meets reality. So today, without true conviction, all I can do is notationally average down and short more at $450.

No true complaints, since the rest of my heavy hitters are all doing their job. Sold a few shares of Valero a day early, for $66.85. Not many shares, just enough to cash in and let Newfield Exploration move up to the top line. Newfield's reversal is almost complete.... next week, their 20-day average should pierce the 200 on its way north for the summer.

I added to my shares of United Health this week, twice. I anticipated that strong earnings and guidance would reverse the stock. On Monday, I paid $52.62 with a limit order. Should have been paying attention to the bid/ask, because I could have lowered my limit all day. The next day, I also bought shares, near what I believe to be the bottom, at $47.62. Time will tell.

On Monday,went long on ALKS, after the news of the FDA approval had settled down. The half-life on last week's FDA approval was actually more than two full trading days; could have bought the shares a buck cheaper, around twenty-one, had I waited. A director exercized $125,000 worth of shares at $25 in March, so that is a small indication of a near top. We may be holding that bag awhile. Until states begin to mandate court-ordered injections for drunken driving convictions, along with twelve-step or other counseling.

Also bought some EFD near what I believe is a consolidation channel around twenty-six dollars.

Same with ORB, purchased before earnings in a somewhat longer wavelength consolidation channel at $15.30.

Finally, the chart on INTC shows a stock that has been very well sold for weeks, so I made a small investment there, at $19.48. Next average down point, anywhere from $16 on down. Doubt the pps will test lower than seventeen.

Time for dust-off. Peace.

10:22 pst Somebody please tell STKL investors that this company may become a ten dollar stock very soon, but they will be lucky to earn two bits a share, all year. I could have added more shares at eight dollars last week, but I wasn't convinced that all these new holders will be all that thrilled with the bottom line. We'll see, week after next on the 2nd, if their exploding top line alone will keep the ride alive.

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 BUNDY WAS PROBABL TRANS NOOBODY TALKS ABOUT THIS...THEY/THEM LEFT DETAILED NOTES ON THERE/THEM OBSESSESH WITH THE VAG